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No regrets at not having taken the first block break short trade.
Another opportunity came along in the form of a modified double doji break + first break. Entered at 1.3064
Reasons for entry can be summarized in a few words: downtrend supporting with-trend trade (downtrend part of a larger trading range which is the big up big down move), no break of bear trendlines, momentum supportive, bars below 20EMA.
It took some initial heat after which the trade seemed on its way to reach target of 10-ticks.
After the formation of the second doji block the tipping point could now be moved to 1.3160.
I was tempted to cover at 1.36058 because it became evident that a breakout test of the earlier pinbar was complete and the trade odds had dwindled to a coin-flip (50-50). (see 5-min chart for details)
However before I could react the trade took out the tipping-point and became a 3-tick winner. Note that the stop was not moved to breakeven just to lock in profits - the stop was moved to a technical level which if hot would have rendered the initial trade premise untenable.
That the stop was taken out does causes no worries, because I followed all my rules.
A short entry was justified based on the following:
- Range Break - the jittery execution was due to price reentering the pattern boundary (I was jittery because I had got a one-tick better fill than normal!)
- The round number magnet of 1.30 - it was 60% probable that the round number would suck prices towards it.
- The trade gave miniscule heat however I did not follow the rule - "Price has a tendency to deceive, fight that deception and trade!"
As I said in a brief note a few hours ago, I let a valid range break trade pass by - or rather slacked up enough to allow it to scare me into closing it for a 3-tick profit (MEMO: relapse into old habit).
Here is the trade highlighted first on 5-min timeframe where the range is very clear (but the short suddenly became scary when in the trade) and on the one-minute chart where it was not clear but it was not scary either.
The problem is I slipped up in the discipline part on Trade 2 - not so on trade 1, which in hindsight would have given em a heat of -7 ticks and then would have gone to hit its 10-tick target and then 10 more but that is irrelevant - trading is about probabilities not about outcomes.
Now that I look at the 1-min chart in hindsight it is very clear that this was NOT a range break trade as there was no buildup as price exited the range. This was an Advanced Range Break (ARB) trade which should have been traded only when price moved to test the range barrier and then tumbled southwards.
This tells me I was on a 5-min higher timeframe chart because it showed me some things 'better'. Adam Grimes (star trader, SMB Capital) reminds us that moving to a higher timeframe to seek confirmation is warning bell that would probably result in an impending loss of discipline soon.