Looks like there was a ton of uncertainty/fear/volatility in NG earlier this AM. I always compare theoretical prices to actual bid/ask. An hour ago, the bid/ask prices were way above theoretical prices. Now they are much closer. Although I hate being on the wrong side of all this, it is interesting to follow what to me looks like fear in the market.

Absolutely KD, markets up 5c and people are hitting the offer on things like H4 6C at .054. double yesterdays price which equates to ridiculous delta for an option 37% out of the money, just crazy. I wish that was my offer that got hit.

kevinkdog 

Looks like there was a ton of uncertainty/fear/volatility in NG earlier this AM. I always compare theoretical prices to actual bid/ask. An hour ago, the bid/ask prices were way above theoretical prices. Now they are much closer. Although I hate being on the wrong side of all this, it is interesting to follow what to me looks like fear in the market.

hi kd,
is it 'uncertainty/fear' or expectation that prices will go higher?


(fwiw harvard16.....offers get lifted, bids get hit).

did the NG storage report just come out by any chance?

-81
Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report - EIA

bloody hell,

being in Aus i have always been asleep when this gets released, man did the spreads on options strikes widen. is this normal?

I don't trade options, but 60-90 seconds before the number is released all the liquidity is pulled in the futures, one of the reasons market moves so violently, so few resting orders.

Tip Just a reminder that @ron99 is presenting an Options Webinar today after the close at 4:30 PM Eastern

https://nexusfi.com/webinars/#registernow

Mike

Big Mike 

Tip Just a reminder that @ron99 is presenting an Options Webinar today after the close at 4:30 PM Eastern https://nexusfi.com/webinars/#registernow Mike

That's assuming he hasn't done anything rash after watching these NG calls get ballistic.

I picked up my marbles yesterday and went home after watching my NG mar 6 calls go from 8 to 17.

Today at 54. Got my ass handed to me years ago in NG. I'll watch for now.

And listen to ron99 for advice.

I am being bent over right now. Hell of a learning curve. Busy bailing to live to fight another day.

Rookie mistakes, i wont be making them again. It costs too much sleep and too much money!