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Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,057 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,399
Thanks Received: 10,225
While Contango isn't as high as it was earlier in the year, Sep/Jun Brent is still trading nearly $5 which is over 50c/month. May not pay for floating storage but that definitely covers land storage costs.
I know a few people here use seasonals. I was looking at them earlier and noticed some inverse-correlation between the Jan-Feb performance. Unfortunately you can only go back to 2006 so it's just over 9 years of data but would be interesting to see if it continues to repeat.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,057 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,399
Thanks Received: 10,225
Sorry forgot the 3rd and potentially most important chart
XFH Butterfly is currently 3-5-7, HKN is 7-9-11 and the H-N spread is 3-11 spread.
Data is all of 2015, Red Triangle is 7/31
@CobblersAwls on seasonality, would you rather look at Percentage of Up/Down Years or Avg. Percentile Change of that month?
I understand the latter is more valuable but when I plot it against price looks like another delayed indicator. Maybe it is not a timing signal I don't know...
@MktOutperform: Crude trading below its 200-day moving average for over a year now, 2nd longest streak in history. $CL_F $USO pic.twitter.com/O4o5nxzlXK