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You are incorrect. VV uses historical prices in their backtest (open, close, high, low). So, it really doesn't matter what the underlying is doing. In addition, there was over 500 trades during the period, so it wasn't exactly a 'buy and hold'.
One of the cool tools in Vectorvest is the ability to see stock price and earnings on the same chart.
Keep in mind that the EPS shown on the chart are forecasted EPS and tend to be off a bit. I usually check any stock I’m interested in against a year ago forecast compared to 12 month trailing earnings. I find that the smoother the line the more accurate the forecasts.
I’ve attached a couple charts. It is an easy visual choice as to which stock you would want to own. I have owned both.
Stocks are both Canadian stocks but you get the idea.
The yellow line shows Vectorvest’s computed value
The white line is the 30 week ma that I use for exits
The price bars are weekly bars.
The EPS line is forecasted earnings that they apparently buy from Reuters.
I’m attempting to change my portfolio so that all my stocks have price and EPS moving from lower left to upper right.
"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
Dr. Diliddo, the VectorVest founder, mentioned in his book. He bought the information and used it to compute earning growth rates... ( Stocks, Strategies and Common Sense, 1996, page 67). VV's EPS is indicating 12 month leading earnings per share (see page 66).
I always log in here like once every 3 months...and post my thoughts on anything I've tried so that others know what works and what is a waste of time/money.
It should be noted that trading is an entertainment for me, a game really...I definitely do NOT trade for a living...I trade for shits and giggles.
That being said...PLEASE save your money on VectorVest.
1.
When you attend their live intro sessions, its nothing more than a bunch of testimonials.
Bunch of old guys talking about how much VectorVest has improved their trading and how much money their making in markets...but no real strategies.
Granted, their sales pitch is REALLY good...but after the X number of sales pitches I think any BMT user could figure out its all smoke.
To be honest with you the venue was REALLY fancy, and when I looked at their website, they have sales pitches all over the world, so they definitely are convincing more than 1 sucker to buy in.
2.
In case it wasnt totally obvious, these guys are targeting investors.
BMT is more for traders.
So my interest was limited going in.
3.
I would never buy anything sold by someone named "Dr. Dildo" (VectorVest founder).
Thanks.
Around 5% move the market. 10% try to follow the 5%. The rest provide liquidity.
To start with maybe you should listen to the old guys, you might learn something. After all you can’t buy experience in the market.
What do you mean no strategies? Vectorvest has dozens of canned strategies. What I like about the program is that it allows you to modify the strategies and provides you with the tools to backtest them. You also have the capability to write and backtest your own strategy.
I agree the sales pitch is good and should be considered as a sales pitch. The strategies they show are cherry picked to show returns that are probably not sustainable on an ongoing basis. (HINT: no strategy works all the time) The object like any sales pitch is to get you to try the product. If you are serious about trading/investing you should try the 5 week trial for the exorbitant price of $9.95.
They don’t target investors as such. Their target is stock traders. There is nothing for futures or forex traders. What they are selling is a very powerful data base which allows you to sort thru all the stocks listed on the major exchanges in the US. It is the best search engine I have found.
For an additional monthly fee (of course) you can get real-time data that a day trader could probably make use of. (As a swing trader I use EOD data).
The name of the vendor would never influence my judgement of the product. I judge it by its results.
And finally NO I’m not a paid shill for Vectorvest. YES I’m one of those Old Guys who tried the product and found that it more than paid for itself.
"The days when I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations, I have really good days" RW Hubbard
I have used VV in my Rookie year 2000 and from what I read in this thread their business model haven't changed much.
I did get burnt in my first few months by following the software blindly that's when I decided to investigate deeper.
Someone said They don't have a forum... They use to have one at yahoo groups but I remember people being banned for being constantly vocal about VV misleading practices so it's quite possible They closed it.
One of the main complaints back then was that the software wouldn't adjust for reverse split and many many companies were doing it to avoid deletion from the exchange (The exchange would replace them if They dropped below $5) So if you backtested poor perfomance stocks above $10 sure enough those stocks would be on top of the list and if You had just short them You had made a small fortune however had You run that sorting strategie real time those stocks wouldn't be there as They were already Below $10.
Dr Bart Dolittle would proud himself of his proprietary market timing tool that never missed calling a major market turn, if it went up for 2 weeks that would mean a major trend reversal, I painstakingly put those values on a spreadsheet (no importing) and built a chart. Upon examining I noticed that He missed almost half of the calls..when investigating further in the forum I found that those were not part of Dr. Bart "best calls" meaning They were ignored.. WTF... anyone can do it in hindsight, furthermore I noticed a remarkable similarity between his tool and the global dow index.. hmmm every good investor will tell you that if the major indexes closed higher for 2 consecutive weeks that would likely put an end on the current Bear leg.
Another interesting misleading claim was That They would brag that their investors were recommended to ditch Enron well ahead of the scandal, upon checking the recommendation history Enron was a buy then went to a hold and stayed a hold recommendation for a long time and just went to a sell recommendation when the stock was already down big time, but They considered it was out of the portfolio as it went from buy to hold.
Also together with their market turn call They would present a new strategy that had outrageous performance in backtest but would perform not so good in real time ...curve fitted to the max???
That being said their model portfolio used to do well for aggressive investor +50% year but conservative investor would constantly be out of the market or entering when the trend was well advanced and about to turn again.
Also VV is/was a good value/growth stock sorting however overpriced.
I never again paid for anything that wasn't trading education related (basically books).
Broker: TD Ameritrade (soon to be Schwab) & NinjaTrader
Trading: The indexes, ES, YM, NQ & RTY
Posts: 171 since Aug 2012
Thanks Given: 216
Thanks Received: 157
Thanks for all the comments here, it does give me a base of realistic expectations.
Can anyone do a back test that would consider using all of the S&P 500, or 100 if that's easier, stocks in a long only portfolio starting 2007 to present. What would be the best return of any strategy? Then add the ability to short stocks and let us know the results. Then one other test would be to do a short only strategy and provide the results.
What I'm looking for is to see what happens when you aren't cherry picking the stocks which make up the portfolio and to include a bear market and not just a raging bull market with long stocks.