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I am almost fully invested, holding 14 different positions. (I consider a strangle or different ES puts as one position.) Thus, my radar for further positions is rather empty.
Regarding corn calls, I would currently only buy them, speculating for hot weather during pollination period. I would not sell them - there is too much risk. Weather for the second half of June is hard to predict.
I am not interested in CL calls at current prices.
And I do not have an opinion on ZB - I rarely trade the financials.
One of the chart technicians I follow mentioned that ZW just finished an inverse Head and Shoulders formation (to breakout to the upside).
With the huge move to day we probably need to wait for a pullback.
I got out of grain calls just in time. I started exiting a couple weeks ago. Ended up with small profits cept for one after fees was a $10 loss.
Still sitting on some energy puts that started out as strangles, I'm glad to see them go back up.
Also sitting on some cattle puts mostly feeder.
Also a couple ES puts
All trades were made before I got called back to work.
I intend on making no real money trades while working. I just don't have time. With exception maybe some ES puts.
I can give a good example, recently I had NGN puts. Leftovers from strangles, I took profit of near 90% rather soon on the calls. Anyhow my puts were less than a cent from being in the market, I tried getting out but couldn't. I got lucky I went from $540/contract to the negative to them expiring worthless with a $530/contract profit.
I still look at an watch markets when I have time but will stick to paper for now. I am watching grains since I got out too. However on paper I'm thinking about selling calls but maybe not til August or September.
Brings me to a question for more experienced sellers. At what point does one need to exit to avoid being caught. I can't blame my full service broker as they followed my direction on when to call me.
The latest point I personally get out is when the value of the option has approximately doubled. Usually I choose an exit value in the underlying future (important support, resistance). An example: I will get out of the ES strangles, when the S&P index moves below 2400. (Some of my older puts might even make money at this time, the ES calls definitely will have made money.)
Furthermore, I exit in case the fundamentals have changed significantly.
Like I mentioned I'm no longer entering as I haven't time.
I was down that much when I tried to get out. I tried getting out but couldn't. Just glad that market went above my puts an they expired worthless. I didn't intend to be in that position nor do I want to again.
I could be wrong but when there are only a few days left, I assume the ones yet holding are commercials intending on either delivering or taking delivery. Is that why I couldn't get out?
I was never down that much until 5 days from expiration. I intend when I place new trades to give my broker some DTE instruction as well.
In a strangle I tend to roll the untested side when the value of the other side has about tripled. That gives more room.
A number of strangles have been more profitable that way than originally intended.
I usually have lower deltas than you (2-3 for naked puts, 4-5 in strangles), and the doubling in price goes quite quickly with these.
I like also to check the chart first, if an obivous support/resistance value is in sight.