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In response to your comment "think Brexit, Trump election, Syria bombing, etc" Thinking back to the Trump election, wasn't that the last time the ES traded limit down for a brief period?
Yes, that's the last limit down we've had and it came in the O/N session. That was my point as liquidity is much thinner and moves can easily be exacerbated.
You miss 100% of the shots you don't take. - Wayne Gretsky
I find CL easier to scalp during the O/N session. Once you can clearly spot a change in behavior in the order flow (imbalance or stacking of orders on one particular side of the book) The probability of a three to six tick move into those orders is fairly high. It seems once the book is tilted towards one side, price tends to drive into the more populated of the two. This almost always works for an easy 3-6 tick trade during the O/N session as compared with the US session. In the US day session the larger side of the book tends tends to do the pushing, instead of pulling.