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Thanks buddy, one of the things I was working on during my month long January hiatus.
A quick question for everyone... looking at the monthly chart, ~1.2560 is an interesting area to be playing in. There's a couple of instances of stopping power in the past at this level.
I'm sure other people are looking at this, but curious how much weight past precedents like this can carry forward? Is it going to be tough for the bulls to break through this area? I know nobody can say for sure but looking for input. Thoughts?
First "Live" trade for the month. Fast scalp on Crude just to dip my toe's in the water. I might not be trading M6E unless Crude starts kicking my ass, time will tell. JP
Shane, regarding your post, will look at it later. JP
Here was my one trade today. As planned, bought in with the show of strength over 2500 but unfortunately the ride was too lumpy for me and I was out for a break even before the EOD run up. I thought the volume today was worth a second look. I know I should probably be looking at 6E rather than M6E when it comes to the volume action. But most of the time the story is roughly similar between the two. Today we had some pretty strong high volume bars pressing upward as price approached the 2500 level and beyond. Sometimes volume reads to me like a very complex tug of war but today it seemed to read very simply.
Here's the H1 again. I''ll do 6E here because I am actually curious what the real volume picture looks like. So let's try and make some kind of narrative out of this. Basically other than one solid down day on the 26th, this is a tale of evenly paced dip buying. I consider the jury out as long as we remain locked in by that blow-off high from the 25th, but you really have to like what you see if you are a euro bull / dollar bear right now.
Thanks for posting this, it's a great chart. Yes, I think this is an important view but I have one comment I want to make: If the time frame of one's trade is a few hours or less, let's think very hard about whether a piece of price action from years prior is relevant to our needs.
I'm not saying it's not useful. More a question to consider. My personal opinion is that if there is any information at all that I can throw away and still succeed, I'm going to be first in line to throw it away. I'd go out on a limb and say that for intraday trading, for me, even the H4 probably only needs to be checked once every couple days just in case there's a level from the past couple months that is off screen.
As for this monthly view... My take away is that yes, we shouldn't be surprised if things start to get a little messy up here. But then... the market is probably going to tell you on the H1 pretty quickly when things start getting messy. Is the monthly going to make me second-guess taking good longs if we break 2560 and 2600? I hope not. Will it make me more likely to take shorts if we hit some kind of climax? Eh, I think I'll probably get signals for that on the lower timeframes too.
Again, awesome chart, important chart, but made me think about why I don't have any charts above H4 for day-trading. I check the longer timeframes on the weekends so I'm peripherally aware anyways, but I actually make an extra effort not to put too much weight on them for the intraday trading.
Thanks a lot for this, it helps put it in perspective. Totally agree we won't be making any intraday decisions based solely on the monthly chart. I guess I'm just really interested to see how the market responds to a level buried so far in the past LOL. The Euro hasn't been up this high in quite some time!
Another decent day. Won some, lost some, could have been better but happy with the result and refining the process. I'm a night owl but these Euro sessions are taking their toll.
To put things in perspective, most of what I made tonight was in the lethargic Asian session. The Euro session kicked in, fast moving with plenty of opportunities but I wasn't able to take advantage of them because I was too busy shooting myself in the foot, making bad decisions or mis-managing.
Asian session +55. Euro session +5 and minus everything but +5, +60 on the day.
Took the trade at the Valley confirmation. For those whom dont know how I been trading the M6E, its simply looking for wide range bars and waiting for price to pullback to the bottom third of them.. one of two things I look for. Price to fill the valley or mountain and hold, or for price to launch through, opening the door for a pullback for a reversal in the same zone.
Its Friday, The bars are steep and I figured take what I can get before it corrects.