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I've made it a habit of watching FuturesTrader71's Trader Bites in the morning before the open, and he actually warned us that the day was probably going to be one of those days, given the rollover. So I knew this going into the session, but all of that information went out the window once I got locked into the orderflow.
As for trading this kind of day in the future, for me, it's not a good idea. I'll take your advice and rule it out.
So I went through my footprint trades of the last 2 weeks, with the intention of figuring out exactly where I went wrong with my trading this week. I've got it down now. Here's a somewhat brief analysis and comparison of my best footprint trades versus my worst ones:
For the sake of simplicity, here is all I need to remember and know for next weeks trading: My best trades are taken because of "climbing" or sustaining delta that's followed by a climax of one-sided participation (new set-up criteria). My worst trades aren't based around this, and most often they are executed because of either a strong detail (like 330 selling the bid) manifests, and/or because I'm clinging to a possibility in the longer timeframe. The delta progression of most of my poor trades isn't linear, and in some cases, the delta is too inconsistent and seemingly random for it to be reasonable to take a trade in the first place. There is a clear difference between my successful and unsuccessful trades. I now specifically know what to look for, and this coming week, I will be exclusively executing on opportunities that fulfill the criteria stated above.
Example of sustaining delta:
13, 152, 19, -4, -287, -250, -273
Example of progressing delta:
13, 152, 19, -4, -287, -365, -390
Example of a climax (delta):
13, 152, 19, -4, -287, -365, -831
I won't take imbalances seriously unless they're in the triple digits.
I can't fully mechanize this set-up, because conditions always vary; delta, volume and imbalances are only relatively significant. Discretion is needed.
I gave up watching or reading anybody else's thought on what might happen that day. Their analysis isn't any more likely to be right or wrong at the end of the day than mine is. So it is just their hypotheses relevant to their trading style and I found I either accepted it whole heartedly without thinking of my own, or I came up with my own analysis and made decisions based on that. Otherwise I invariably thought at some point in the day that I should be say looking for shorts but FT71 or similar had said be careful of shorting in this area, and then my trade would work and I would be annoyed, or it wouldn't work and I would think I should only take a trade if the other person's analysis matches my own, adding layers of complexity and things that aren't my responsibility.
In the end I decided that for me the best use for somebody else's premarket analysis, would be to look at theirs only at the end of the day when I had finished trading. And then see where it differed from my own and focus on any major differences and the information that was being considered to form those alternate views.
You do not win as a trader, you just get to play again the next day. If that game doesn’t appeal to you then you should not trade. Gary Norden
My hypotheses are established before I watch FT71. Watching him is supplementary to my perspective. As a real beginner, watching a professional occasionally "fills the holes" in my analysis, so to speak. Do I cling to every word he says? No.
For myself, I'm basically with @matthew28; I once did watch the Trader Bites every day and it did make me think, but I came to believe that since my basic take on trading -- the things I use to make decisions -- is not the same as FT71's I was just getting confused.
But when something helps you, then you should keep doing it for as long as it does, and in any way it does. Not clinging to his every word is healthy too.
Todays performance in contrast with last Fridays was way better. This is because I remembered how I felt after over-trading last week, and I don't want or need to experience that again. This morning I was mindful at the open, and I was deliberate in real-time analysis. Also- yesterday, I prepared my charts and established significant levels, and decided "good" entry and stop loss areas. This kind of preparation is in contradiction with my most recent attitude towards creating scenarios- but that attitude, I've realized, only exists because of my difficulty of remaining detached from my hypotheses. I'm currently integrating my preparations and my real-time analyses, which I could only imagine will lead me to only take higher probability trades.
To get specific about how today was any different than usual, I asked myself a couple of questions during the open. The first one, and the most significant one being, "What time-frame is in charge?" with my answer being, "The market is in a range." The question was asked and answered at 9:40, because after 9:40 is the time I allow myself to trade. I also noted some things that are a subset of the significant question: open volume and volatility was low and out of my preference. Also, at the time of answering these questions, the market was trading in this small range between 2891.75, and 2897.50. I was looking for price to break one of these extreme levels, but given the poor open, it wasn't in my best interest to take a trade. I was more concerned with making a solid analysis of the situation, and this post explanation resembles my real-time thoughts on the matter. It's very simple:
These screenshots reveal why you must be careful in your interpretation of signals with the footprint. According to the absorption signal displayed in the first screenshot, with that piece of information alone, it would seem like a good idea to go short. But if you add more context to the mix, for example, it's the week after roll-over, summer is starting and historically markets become more inactive, the open was poor in terms of volume and volatility, etc.- the signal is realized as being way less significant. Context, context, context.
This is a good week to solidify this kind of thought process. I essentially want to practice only trading higher probability opportunities, versus trading whenever or whatever promising opportunity pops up. I want to develop repeatable discretionary set-ups for differing macro contexts, and for this week, I suspect (certainly not claiming to know) that price action will be underwhelming and range-y. If that's the case, I have a plan for that, given sufficient volume. We'll see what happens.
Kudos to you for having the patience to watch the session and wait for an A+ setup knowing that it may not appear at all. Taking no trades feels better than taking bad trades.
I've been struggling with over-trading the past two sessions. As you said, I don't want to or need to experience that again. This post comes at a relevant time for me. Thank you for sharing.
Thank you, @mtzimmer1. One of my biggest vices as a trader is wanting to trade every opportunity, but it has really sunk in that I just can't do that. In reality, I only need a few macro set-ups (macro as in directional plays in the 30 minute chart) to become a CPT. The implications of this selectivity, given edge, would be a real chance at consistency. With that being said, I'm still trying to establish more macro set-ups. I'm picky.
You're welcome! Find your best trades and copy them in the future.
I'm going to keep this short and sweet. My first trade was a FOMO trade after the massive bullish move to 2930 out of the open. I bought there and knew it was a bad idea, and I got stopped out immediately for a 2 point loss. I then noticed that the bullish trend was exhausting right around the area I bought, so I sold, thinking there would be a pullback. There was, and I made back what I lost. After that, I got my head together and noticed my new macro set-up was developing. I executed and eventually got stopped out for a 4.25 point loss. I re-attempted a better entry for the same set-up with the same stop loss width based around a good technical level, and I got stopped out rapidly by a breakout. That's the way it is sometimes, and that's ok. Besides the first two trades, I did well.
The bottom line is, I need to reset my brain and eliminate shit trading behavior that I learned along the way. I want to get truly accustomed to acting on only a few set-ups- and right now, I need to firmly establish which ones I'm going to trade from here on out (the one I used today, I will use in the future). So that's my number one priority right now. I also need to get rid of these trading habits: FOMO trading, and breakout trading (it's not worth it in the end). The way you get rid of a bad habit is by stopping it- so I'm going to take a break, figure my shit out completely, and come back and be as consistent as I possibly can be. I'll still post here, I'm just not going to trade for the rest of this week. I'm going to finally put the work in where it matters the most. This is my chance at committing to consistency.
Today, I hit my 1 year mark as an aspiring trader. Last year at this date, I bought my PC and took my first SIM trade ever. Don't people usually quit by now?