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And pretty much all trading indicators don't work. They're a scam enticing you to trade more and serve ZERO purpose. I use only my lines and volume. The volume profile on the side of my chart serves no purpose. If you think price can be predicted through lagging indicators, then most of what I will talk about will not make sense. Price is never affected by what VWAP, BB, Moving Averages, Elliot Waves, etc say. It's all BS. I have been stuck in this stage too long ago. You have to forget all that junk and aim to learn the market from a first principle approach. Learn how orders are stacked, how markets are basically an auction, how the price of a commodity is trading at new price level because its in a passive auction and etc. This is all learned through screen time. Stop learning theories and studies and start seeing what is true in the market. This is the beauty of the market IMO. It's like a science that you are constantly trying to discover. You try different methods, apply them, and see what worked and what didn't. You record your findings and continue on.
However, if you trading VWAPs and RSIs, then you are closer to gambling than you are to trading IMO.
Thesis: Price is now above the price level when the third consecutive interest rate hike was announced back on September 21st, 11 am PST. I look at this and I see that the market is trading above this level even though the market environment has not improved throughout this time. Price being above this level, it will attract longer time frame traders and revert below this level, hopefully, haha. As you can see in the image, I've typed out the events next to the price lines. The white and yellow lines are the most important, as yellow is older and white is newer. I will be shorting the ES after the opening today barring anything new.
Exit Strategy: I have the GDP Growth as the closest white line holding up price at 3775. That would be the ideal exit price level, though anything below the yellow line will suffice.
Still waiting out my entry for this short. This is always the hardest part, the patience that's required to hold off. I'm looking towards activity at 12 to 1 am PST as movement is sometimes fast during these trading hours. Opened under the close and is just ranging a little, I'll be fine if I can survive the boredom. Screen Shot 2022-10-30 at 4.20.58 PM
Entry: 3899.25
MES: 1 Unit
I made a mistake by entering the trade below the yellow line, which is one of my rules. I was away from the screen when the price dipped below and I rationalized to myself that I better buy some before the move begins. The arrow represents my short entry. As you can see, they went the other way but that's fine. I'm gonna be holding this for a couple of hours. Also note the lot sizes, I'm going super small so I can learn more and not blow up the account lol.
So an update on the MES position. Patience here has paid off so far. Priced has moved down below the line again and is descending. So far my thesis is right. Price was overvalued above the line and big sellers came into the market. Now I'm looking to find a good exit. It's 1:50 am here on the west coast, so time may be the reason I end this trade prematurely. Screen Shot 2022-10-31 at 1.49.14 AM
So I'm pulling the plug on this trade. Starting to feel sleepy, and I'm bound to lose money during that state. I sold on the pullback up, which was the worst time to exit by oh well. The Red dashed line is the entry, and the green dashed line is the exit on my short position. Just a 5 point gain. Screen Shot 2022-10-31 at 2.47.08 AM
Trade #2- MES Short
Entry- 3901.75
Woke up this morning to the price being below the yellow line, but quickly approaching it once again. It reached this level at 04:25 am, as you can see in the graph, so I knew that I would probably only get one more chance before the price is quickly rejected here. The less time it spends in an area, the more demand is in that price range. I've seen this trade setup happen a ton through screen time and I was just quick enough to catch it. The price blipped above the yellow region for under 10 minutes and I was able to enter my short position right at 3901.75, which is also the yellow line.
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