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@blackgrey45 That's good advice. You might see you picked the bottom in CL ( Post #322) but missed more than 100 ticks profit (when held to RTH close) just because your stop was wrongly located, exiting for 1 tick loss by looking at the DOM instead of placing it just below the 8:25 pm low. How are you ever going to catch some of these moves you're looking for by not being in the market?
Good point, I am sure my stops are too tight because the volatility will close my trade 99.9% of the time. I am definitely looking for that low tick that is timed to perfection which leads to a big profit runner that I hold until close. I may have to dig a lot of holes but one day I will hit the big winner and strike gold if I can survive the drawdown. Right now I'm trying this 1 to 3 tick mental stop procedure but will most likely change and try to adapt as well. I also need to follow my plan and trade the strategy I have back testing and I can't hold onto losses like I always do.
I just have to say I really enjoy this feedback. This forum is great for bouncing ideas around with other real traders.
The order book or DOM is the main catalyst for entering a trade. When there are large orders in the DOM I will front run them in an effort to trade in the same direction. For instance, lets say the price is 4410.00 and at 4411.25 there is a large order 3 times the size of the limit orders at all other levels, I will place a limit order to go short at 4411.00 right in front of the large order. I will attempt to close the trade for a small loss if the large order is executed and price continues higher.
I have read that some think the market is attracted to large orders in the DOM and that price will actually move closer to the large order but I disagree with this theory. I believe large orders act as support/resistance and I want to be positioned the same way as the large orders.
I also look at the high and low of the day because the price action around these levels are indicators of future direction. For example if the market makes new lows and trades 4-8 ticks above the new low for 10-15 minutes after there is a high likely hood that the market will move lower.
-Trends can and often do move a lot further than I think is logical
-Use a mental stop loss(I don't like hard stops)
-Study the order book like a student of the market (I don't use charts)
-Expect and prepare for the unexpected
-I will only enter a trade if I am ready to take a loss.
If I remember these ideas I may stay safe this week.
I have come to the conclusion that I have to use a stop loss, either mental stop or hard stop. There are no exceptions. The market, or any market for that matter can do anything, and I have to be prepared to exit a loss. I have traded many times without using a stop loss and have escaped disaster 99% of the time with the other 1% of trades resulting in a blown up account. I wish price always reverted back to the average but on occasion the market trades to a new price without retracing. I tell myself if I want to keep trading I must use a stop.