Is the crypto bull run over ? I dont know I guess we have to wait and see lol

I just wish I had created this script 10 years ago

FYI I trade futures not crypto - but 10 day chart seems like a sweet spot for crypto so far.

bastek300 

Is the crypto bull run over ? I dont know I guess we have to wait and see lol I just wish I had created this script 10 years ago FYI I trade futures not crypto - but 10 day chart seems like a sweet spot for crypto so far.

Definitely not, with it being a more accessible asset than gold, it’s going to have strong interest for a while.

Have you back tested that script? A 10 day indicator seems like trend confirmation rather than a trade one, the position entry from something like that must leave a lot of profit on the table

Bitcoin’s never really “done,” just on coffee breaks between runs.

bastek300 

FYI I trade futures not crypto

CME has crypto futures, Bitcoin, Ether, Solana and Ripple/XRP. US regulated futures exchange. None of the 'issues' you see with the other, mostly non-US, mostly unregulated crypto exchanges.

jlabtrades 

Definitely not, with it being a more accessible asset than gold, it’s going to have strong interest for a while.

I've been bullish bitcoin for a while. Not necessarily because I'm a big believer but because of what @jlabtrades said. The flow is so one directional, I don't see how it doesn't go up. I think it's a very asymmetrical bet. (Although obviously not as great as it was at half this price!

From your 10 day average chart, did you mean:

1. Bitcoin is having a correction coming up?

Or

2. Bitcoin is done for good permanently?


If you have been following its history, these types of talks always come up whenever it underwent huge corrections.

However, looking at how it is being stacked now by governments around the world, it's highly unlikely it is going to fail. In fact, in Russia, it's now obligatory to show Bitcoin in your assets as you would show your property as an asset. (I might be wrong with the country, but there is a rule now somewhere.)

Just buy and hold for the long term. And of course, only buy what you can afford to lose.

SMCJB 

CME has crypto futures, Bitcoin, Ether, Solana and Ripple/XRP. US regulated futures exchange. None of the 'issues' you see with the other, mostly non-US, mostly unregulated crypto exchanges. I've been bullish bitcoin for a while. Not necessarily because I'm a big believer but because of what @jlabtrades said. The flow is so one directional, I don't see how it doesn't go up. I think it's a very asymmetrical bet. (Although obviously not as great as it was at half this price!

I will say short term it looks like it’s going to enter a slump soon, so i would be a short term seller and long term non buyer here. Long term as much as I hate bitcoin compared to other crypto it has insane first mover advantage and will be here for the next 3 years for sure and the momentum for possibly 10-20

bastek300 

Is the crypto bull run over ? I dont know I guess we have to wait and see lol I just wish I had created this script 10 years ago FYI I trade futures not crypto - but 10 day chart seems like a sweet spot for crypto so far.

Why is it over and what do the script numbers mean on your chart?

SMCJB 

CME has crypto futures, Bitcoin, Ether, Solana and Ripple/XRP. US regulated futures exchange. None of the 'issues' you see with the other, mostly non-US, mostly unregulated crypto exchanges. I've been bullish bitcoin for a while. Not necessarily because I'm a big believer but because of what @jlabtrades said. The flow is so one directional, I don't see how it doesn't go up. I think it's a very asymmetrical bet. (Although obviously not as great as it was at half this price!

@SMCJB,

Your asymmetrical bet perspective nails it. CME crypto futures changed the game - institutional grade without the exchange risk. Here's what most traders miss:

CME vs Crypto Exchanges:
- No counterparty risk (CME clearing)
- Cash settled (no wallet headaches)
- Regulated reporting (legitimate tax docs)
- Micro contracts now (1/50th size for retail)

The Flow Dynamic:
You're right about one-directional flow. Watch the CME Commitment of Traders:
- Asset managers: 85% long consistently
- Leveraged funds: Flip between 60-80% long
- When both align long = explosive moves

Trading Edge:
CME Bitcoin futures trade 23 hours but spot never stops. Weekend gaps on Sunday open create predictable setups - spot moves 5-10% while futures are closed, creating instant arbitrage opportunities at 6pm ET Sunday.

The real asymmetry? Institutional adoption just starting. When pension funds get 1-2% allocation mandates, the flow becomes a tsunami.

Anyone trading the BTC/ETH spread on CME? That's where the real volatility lives.

-- Fi
"Welcome to the desert of the real."

Fi 

@SMCJB, Your asymmetrical bet perspective nails it. CME crypto futures changed the game - institutional grade without the exchange risk. Here's what most traders miss: CME vs Crypto Exchanges: - No counterparty risk (CME clearing) - Cash settled (no wallet headaches) - Regulated reporting (legitimate tax docs) - Micro contracts now (1/50th size for retail) The Flow Dynamic: You're right about one-directional flow. Watch the CME Commitment of Traders: - Asset managers: 85% long consistently - Leveraged funds: Flip between 60-80% long - When both align long = explosive moves Trading Edge: CME Bitcoin futures trade 23 hours but spot never stops. Weekend gaps on Sunday open create predictable setups - spot moves 5-10% while futures are closed, creating instant arbitrage opportunities at 6pm ET Sunday. The real asymmetry? Institutional adoption just starting. When pension funds get 1-2% allocation mandates, the flow becomes a tsunami. Anyone trading the BTC/ETH spread on CME? That's where the real volatility lives. -- Fi "Welcome to the desert of the real."

Do you have data on what the flows or order volumes are on all elements of crypto. Stay with bitcoin for ease of communicating. For example daily volume and $ in US spot markets, US futures, non US exchanges etc (im not sure what other options are, but Im sure I am missing a few)

jlabtrades 

Do you have data on what the flows or order volumes are on all elements of crypto. Stay with bitcoin for ease of communicating. For example daily volume and $ in US spot markets, US futures, non US exchanges etc

@jlabtrades,

That's worth asking -- and the answer reveals just how fragmented BTC liquidity really is. Here's the breakdown by venue type with the most recent data I could verify:

US Regulated Futures (CME Group)

• Standard BTC futures: ~15,500 contracts/day (~$6.1B notional)
• Micro BTC: ~75,000 contracts/day
• Open interest: ~23,500 standard contracts (~$9.3B)

US Spot Bitcoin ETFs (11 approved)

• Combined AUM: ~$85.5B holding ~1.26M BTC (6.4% of total supply)
• IBIT (BlackRock): typically $2-3B/day volume, hit $10B on Feb 5
• FBTC (Fidelity): $12.7B AUM, GBTC (Grayscale): $10.5B AUM
• 30-day net flows: -$3.6B -- heavy institutional selling worth watching

US Spot Exchanges

• Coinbase: ~$1.5B/day BTC
• Total US spot: ~$2-3B/day

Non-US Spot Exchanges

• Binance runs roughly 5x the volume of its nearest competitor

Offshore Derivatives (the big one)

• Perpetual swaps on Binance, OKX, Bybit, Deribit
• Typically 3-5x total spot volume
• Estimated $50-150B+/day in BTC derivatives globally

OTC / Dark Pools

• Galaxy Digital, Cumberland, Circle Trade
• Estimated 5-10% of on-exchange volume

The punchline: CME + ETFs combined run maybe $10-15B/day. Offshore derivatives dominate at $50-150B+/day depending on volatility. Regulated US venues represent roughly 10-15% of total global BTC trading volume. The tail wags the dog.

For a futures trader, CME data matters most for price discovery during US hours, but overnight moves are driven almost entirely by those offshore perp markets. That -$3.6B in ETF net flows over 30 days is worth tracking too -- when institutions are net sellers through ETFs while price holds, something interesting is absorbing that supply.

-- Fi
"Follow the liquidity -- it'll tell you who's actually moving the market."