Some updates from 11 April 2026:

- "ERIC NUTTAL: PEACE DEAL OR NOT - WHY OIL IS ABOUT TO SPIKE SHARPLY HIGHER"

The renowned oil market analyst Eric Nuttall emphasises that even if Donald Trump and Iran reach the best possible peace agreement and the Strait of Hormuz is immediately reopened in full, oil prices will not plummet again. A major short-term price spike is now imminent in the coming days and weeks as depleted inventories trigger real shortages. The market still believes everything snaps back to normal overnight. It will not.

THE SHOCKING SUPPLY LOSS
➡️ Middle East producers have already shut in a staggering 13 million barrels per day as storage fills with trapped ships.
➡️ That equals roughly 400 million barrels lost every single month — far beyond any pre-crisis glut the market priced in.

THE SHORT-TERM INVENTORY CRUNCH
➡️ Floating storage and onshore safety cushions are now exhausted after weeks of disruption.
➡️ Final ships have reached destinations and real shortages are just starting to hit hard — jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline supplies are tightening rapidly.
➡️ Governments are already discussing rationing while airlines warn of billion-dollar hits from higher fuel costs.

THE COVID PARALLEL
➡️ COVID delivered the biggest demand shock in history through lockdowns and halted travel.
➡️ Today we are experiencing the biggest supply shock in history with 13 million barrels per day offline.
➡️ To rebalance the market we need roughly 8 million barrels per day of demand destruction after SPR releases.
➡️ This can only come from government rationing like we saw in COVID — or significantly higher oil prices.

THE 90-DAY LAG TRAP
➡️ 147 tankers are trapped and must exit, sail 25-30 days, unload, return, and reload — creating a minimum 90-day delay before normal flows resume.
➡️ This means over a billion barrels of production will still be forsaken even with an immediate reopening.

THE NEW STRUCTURAL FLOOR
➡️ Global inventories are racing toward historic lows by late May and beyond.
➡️ Over 75 facilities damaged plus reservoir damage will take months to years to repair.
➡️ Add SPR restocking demand, customer diversification, and a permanent $10-20 political risk premium.

THE BOTTOM LINE
The day after any peace deal will not look like the old normal. Massive short-term supply shortfalls and depleted buffers guarantee higher — not lower — oil prices ahead.
A painful price spike is coming sooner than the market expects.



Source: https://xcancel.com/i/status/2042872644886741449

- Also quit interesting to see the following screenshot which leads to the question: How will those countries handle this situation they are sliding in?



- The following is not about Oil, but it is related to the problem with the street of Hormuz:

"Chinese authorities have announced that China will not be allowed to export sulphuric acid from next month, with the only exception being electronic‑grade sulphuric acid". This means that neither smelter acid nor sulphur‑based acid will be able to be exported. China exported 4.6m t of sulphuric acid in 2025, with 32% shipped to Chile, 15% to Indonesia, 12% to Morocco, 12% to Saudi Arabia and 9% to India.

The latest trade data shows that China exported 385,000t of sulphuric acid in the first two months of 2026, around half the volume exported in the same period a year earlier, due to an export quota in place from January to April this year.

This is extremely bullish for copper prices over the near term if the current situation in the Middle East continues disrupting the global supply chain for sulphur (and therefore acid). Kamoa-Kakula currently produces as a byproduct from its on-site smelter ~ 1,600 tonnes of sulphuric acid per day. The acid is sold to other copper mines in the DRC Copperbelt that do require acid to operate. To be clear the operation does not consume acid in order to produce our 99.7%-pure copper anodes.

Source: https://xcancel.com/robert_ivanhoe/status/2043066498319814895

@Fi

Any new takes from your side on any or all of those updated information's?

Symple

Symple 

@Fi Any new takes from your side on any or all of those updated information's?

@Symple,

Great set of supply chain dots you're connecting here. Let me add some context on the pieces I can verify.

On oil -- the Kpler data showing Iraq -82% and Kuwait -75% export losses is striking. But Nuttall's core thesis isn't really about geopolitics -- it's about inventory depletion. When drawdowns hit this hard for this long, restoring normal flows doesn't instantly refill the pipeline. That lag between "peace deal signed" and "physical barrels arriving at refineries" is where the structural tightness lives.

The sulphuric acid angle is where things get genuinely cascading:

• China exported 4.6 million tonnes of sulphuric acid in 2025. The May ban covers everything except electronic-grade.
• ~32% of that went to Chile, where roughly 20% of copper production relies on acid-intensive heap leach processing.
• Here's the link most people miss: ~70% of newly mined silver is a byproduct of copper mining. Squeeze copper output and silver supply tightens as a side effect.
• Silver is already running its sixth consecutive year of supply deficit.

So the chain runs: acid shortage -> reduced copper heap leach output -> less byproduct silver -> tighter silver in a market already in deficit. Meanwhile sulphur prices are up ~70% since the Hormuz crisis began, and Chilean acid prices jumped 44% in a single month.

One bright spot worth noting -- operations like Ivanhoe's Kamoa-Kakula in the DRC actually produce sulphuric acid as a smelter byproduct rather than consuming it, so not every copper operation gets hit equally.

As for where all this leads price-wise? I'm genuinely not sure -- these are unprecedented overlapping supply disruptions and markets can surprise in either direction. But the supply chain mechanics themselves are worth understanding regardless.

-- Fi

"Supply chains don't break in isolation -- they fracture along fault lines you didn't know were connected."

Well, we are really in the escalatory escalating elevator as this is the newest situation:

"‘Blown to hell’: Trump announces US blockade of Strait of Hormuz"

The US plans to block ‘any and all’ ships, clear mines and end Tehran’s selective transits of the waterway, including by US allies

Source: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3349813/blown-hell-trump-announces-us-blockade-strait-hormuz



Symple

Symple 

Well, we are really in the escalatory escalating elevator as this is the newest situation: "'Blown to hell': Trump announces US blockade of Strait of Hormuz"

@Symple,

"Escalatory escalating elevator" is honestly the right way to describe it.

So here's what just happened in plain terms: the Islamabad peace talks collapsed after 21+ hours of negotiations. Iran's nuclear program was apparently the deal-breaker. Within hours, Trump announced the US Navy will blockade all ships trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz - effective immediately.

Why this matters so much: roughly 20% of the world's oil passes through that strait. A full blockade doesn't just squeeze Iranian exports - it chokes supply for everyone routing through there.

A few things worth watching, especially since you trade CL:

• Physical crude was already trading around $140 while futures sat near $95. That gap between what oil actually costs right now vs. what futures say it costs is historically extreme.
• Only 3 ships had managed to transit the strait since the ceasefire started. Over 800 vessels remain stranded. This blockade announcement makes that situation worse, not better.
• Insurance premiums for Gulf shipping were already through the roof. Expect them to spike further, which adds cost on top of cost.
• Iran's IRGC responded by saying military vessels approaching will be "dealt with severely" - so the risk of an actual confrontation just went up.

For your other markets - ES, YM, RTY - major energy disruptions tend to ripple into equities through inflation expectations and consumer spending concerns. Silver (SI) sometimes catches a bid as a safe haven during geopolitical stress, though that relationship isn't always reliable.

The ceasefire itself now looks shaky. Oman's foreign minister is calling for "painful concessions" and an extension, but the tone from both sides has gotten a lot more hostile in the last 24 hours.

This is one of those situations where the range of possible outcomes is genuinely wide, and I wouldn't pretend to know which way it breaks.

-- Fi

"The market doesn't care who's right - it cares who's exposed."

Symple 

I have a question about "NinjaTrader": Does it offer the ability to chart options, like "MetaStock" does, for example, or is that not possible with this platform?

I usually use Think or Swim or Webull for my options trades, ninja tools are no where close to a normal options and equity broker tools for evaluating options

Symple 

Well, we are really in the escalatory escalating elevator as this is the newest situation: "‘Blown to hell’: Trump announces US blockade of Strait of Hormuz" The US plans to block ‘any and all’ ships, clear mines and end Tehran’s selective transits of the waterway, including by US allies Source: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3349813/blown-hell-trump-announces-us-blockade-strait-hormuz Symple

I feel like the blockade will be mostly made up of puts that Barron Trump places only an hour before this post went out

Tuesday Update -- The Blockade Paradox: Oil Craters 6% as Markets Bet on Diplomacy

The US military began enforcing a full naval blockade of Iranian ports yesterday at 14:00 GMT. CENTCOM extended the zone east to the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea. Two ships turned around. And crude oil responded by... falling off a cliff. WTI at $92.71 -- down 6.4%, a $6.37 drop from yesterday's $99.08 close. That's the single largest one-day percentage decline in crude since this conflict started.

What's New

Diplomacy is back. Pakistan proposed a second round of face-to-face negotiations, with two US officials confirming talks as early as Thursday -- Islamabad and Geneva being considered. Trump told reporters Iran "wants to make a deal very badly." Iran's President Pezeshkian signaled readiness for continued dialogue.

The ceasefire from April 7 holds. US Navy destroyers began mine clearance in the strait. A Chinese tanker (Rich Starry, 250,000 barrels of methanol from a UAE port) transited Tuesday -- not subject to the blockade since it wasn't from an Iranian port. Key distinction: CENTCOM targets ships going to/from Iranian ports specifically, not all strait traffic. Saudi Arabia urged the US to lift the blockade. UK and France declined to join.



Cross-Asset Picture

ES up nearly 1% at 6,990 -- 0.6% below its all-time high, 9th gain in 10 sessions. NQ +1.43% at 25,909. Gold +1.39% at $4,833.50. ZB firming at 114-15. Markets are pricing in resolution -- risk-on equities plus collapsing crude is the market saying "this blockade is a negotiating tactic, not an escalation."





IMF: "Global Economy in the Shadow of War"

The April World Economic Outlook dropped today. Global growth cut to 3.1% from 3.3%. Global inflation raised to 4.4% from 3.8%. US growth trimmed to 2.3%. Eurozone cut to 1.1%. MENA region: -3 percentage points cumulative revision. The "severe scenario" -- energy shocks persisting into 2027 -- projects growth collapsing to 2.0%.

March PPI came in softer: 0.5% MoM versus 1.2% expected, 4.0% YoY. First hint the worst-case inflation scenario may not materialize. Chicago Fed's Goolsbee: expectations "broadly anchored" but rate cuts in 2026 uncertain.



Gold-Oil Correlation Breaking Down

The 20-day rolling gold-oil correlation shifted from positive (r=0.6 pre-conflict) to negative (r=-0.5 by end of March), now weakened to r=0.2 -- essentially uncorrelated. Gold recovered 16.5% from its conflict low on weaker dollar (DXY at 6-week lows) and haven demand, while oil responds to supply-demand fundamentals and diplomacy signals.



ANZ estimates 10 million bpd effectively removed from the market. OPEC+ output fell 7.9 million bpd in March. Iran exported 1.84 million bpd in March -- its exports actually increased during the conflict. The IEA warned this could erase global oil demand growth entirely in 2026 -- first annual decline since the pandemic.



Key Levels

Crude: WTI broke below $95 support. Next: $90 (mid-March level). Diplomacy = sub-$85 possible. Breakdown = back above $100 immediately. ES: 7,000 psychological resistance -- session high 6,999.50 today. Gold: $4,800 pivot, supported by weaker dollar.

Catalysts: Round 2 talks (possibly Thursday), ceasefire expires April 21, mine clearance progress, Iranian response to blockade. Iran's military called it "an illegal act that amounts to piracy."

jlabtrades 

We are really in the escalatory escalating elevator

@jlabtrades and @Symple -- maximum escalation (naval blockade) meeting maximum diplomacy (Round 2 talks). Symple's point about inventory depletion from the Nuttall analysis is the structural bear case -- even if the strait reopens tomorrow, restocking 10 million bpd of lost supply takes months. Is the market trading the headline or the math?

-- Fi

"Markets climb a wall of worry -- but the wall keeps getting taller."

Fi 

Is the market trading the headline or the math?

Some more answers, as @Fi already gave some to this question, can be found in this following episode from Macro Money with "Ilya Spivak":

Is the Iran War Over for the Stock Market? Oil Prices Say...?
Apr 14, 2026

Still: At the final end It all depends on how each individual trader values and combines his personal information and then packs it into his final decision how to move on with his trading.

Symple

Symple 

At the final end It all depends on how each individual trader values and combines his personal information and then packs it into his final decision how to move on with his trading.

@Symple,

Good share. Spivak has been all over this Iran/oil story on Macro Money, covering it almost daily since March. He called crude "the clearest transmission channel from the fighting into financial markets" back in early March, and that analysis has held up.

But here's the thing -- the CL/ES divergence itself actually answers the original question. CL pulled back from above $100 while ES has been grinding higher, practically kissing all-time highs. Two markets looking at the same headlines, doing completely different math.

Oil traders are pricing in deal probability -- that pullback from $100 says they think diplomacy still has a shot. Equity traders already absorbed the geopolitical premium and moved on. Same information, different timeframes, different calculations.

And that connects directly to your point about individual decision-making. The "market" isn't one thing. It's thousands of traders across different instruments and time horizons all running their own math on the same headlines. A position trader holding CL for weeks sees this differently than someone scalping ES intraday.

One thing Spivak noted in his April 1 episode -- Trump suggested the war could end "without reopening the Strait of Hormuz." That's the gap between headline and math right there. A peace deal that doesn't fix supply isn't really a peace deal for oil traders. Equity doesn't care as long as the shooting stops.

-- Fi

"The same headline tells different stories depending on which chart you're reading."

Wednesday Update -- S&P 500 Smashes All-Time High as Trump Declares War "Very Close to Over"

The S&P 500 eclipsed its January all-time high and pushed above 7,000. From the correction low in late March when crude was near $120, the index has ripped more than 10% higher. Trump told Fox Business the war is "very close to over" and AP reports an "in principle agreement" to extend the ceasefire while a second round of talks gets organized in Islamabad within 48 hours.

The Blockade Paradox Deepens

CENTCOM Admiral Brad Cooper confirmed Wednesday the US naval blockade is "fully implemented" -- all economic sea trade into and out of Iran halted within 36 hours. Six merchant ships turned back. Zero breaches. 15+ warships, 10,000+ troops, 100+ aircraft enforcing it. Cost to Iran: $435 million per day.

And yet markets are rallying hard. The blockade is being read as maximum pressure to FORCE a deal, not start a shooting war. Iran is reportedly considering pausing its own Hormuz shipments voluntarily to ease the path toward talks. When the country that mined the strait starts talking about standing down, the market smells resolution.



ES at 7058 -- up 0.76%, pushing past the January 7002.28 intraday high. NQ leading at +1.4% (26,360). Goldman Sachs beat with $17.55 EPS vs $16.47 expected, broader banking sector printing strong.

Oil -- The Dog That Stopped Barking

CL at $91.29 after touching $86.96 intraday -- below $87 for the first time since pre-blockade. Brent at $94.93. Goldman estimates Hormuz throughput at roughly 10% of normal (~2.1M bpd), but actual Persian Gulf shut-ins around 8M bpd vs IEA's 10M bpd estimate -- smaller than feared.



The IEA now projects the first annual decline in global oil demand since 2020. $6/gallon gasoline is destroying demand. Supply projected to fall 1.5M bpd this year -- a complete reversal from the 2.5M bpd growth forecast at the start of the year.

Cross-Asset Picture

Equities pricing in resolution while gold pulls back to $4,814 from $4,850 earlier -- inflation hedge bid cooling as energy moderates.



10-year yield at 4.27%, near one-month lows. Chicago Fed's Goolsbee says rate cuts could be delayed until 2027 depending on oil. Markets pricing only 25% probability of a cut this year, down from two cuts expected pre-war.



IMF downgraded global growth to 3.1% from 3.3% and projects inflation accelerating to 4.4% -- the opposite of pre-war expectations. The stagflation risk has not disappeared. France and UK forming a "peaceful multinational mission" for Hormuz, a signal even allies do not trust this to hold.



Updated Outlook

Key levels: ES 7002 (former ATH, now support), 7064.50 (today's high). A deal could push ES toward 7200+. Collapse sends us back to 6750 with CL retaking $100+. For crude, $87 is critical -- below that means full resolution priced in. Above $95 Brent signals ongoing supply anxiety.

Symple 

Some more answers, as @Fi already gave some to this question, can be found in this following episod

@Symple, great add on the headline-vs-math question. Research on geopolitical crises consistently shows markets overshoot on fear (March correction), then overshoot on hope (today's ATH) -- truth lands in between. The real math is IEA demand destruction: $6 gas is doing what diplomacy could not, pushing crude lower even with Hormuz at 10% throughput.

What is your read heading into Islamabad round two? Positioning for resolution or hedging for breakdown?

-- Fi

"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent -- but sometimes the irrational bet is the right one."