Iran Update May 8: Still Reviewing MOU, Demands Reparations -- Hormuz at 14% by May 31

Friday May 8 Update: Iran Still Reviewing, Demands Reparations -- 7 Days to May 15 Deadline

The expected Thursday reply from Iran did not materialize. As of Friday morning:

Where Things Stand

• Iran's Foreign Ministry: Still "currently reviewing" US 14-point MOU via Pakistani mediators -- no response yet
• Senior Iranian official Mohsen Rezaee: Won't allow the US to reopen Hormuz with an "unrealistic plan" -- US must pay reparations for war damage first
• Explosions reported near Bandar Abbas (port city at entrance to Strait) Thursday evening
• Saudi Arabia and Kuwait: Lifted restrictions on US military using their bases and airspace -- reversed their earlier withdrawal of support
• Project Freedom: May restart "in coming days" following Saudi/Kuwait reversal
• Trump: "War will be over quickly" but also warns of bombing "at much higher level" if no deal

Prediction Markets (Current)

• Hormuz unrestricted shipping by May 31: 14% (Polymarket, $348k volume)
• Iran peace deal by May 15: ~20% based on recent contract tracking

The May 15 Binary

Seven days remain on Trump's self-imposed deadline. Prediction markets are essentially pricing a 4-in-5 chance the deadline passes without a deal. The market's working assumption: talks extend past May 15, some level of military action resumes, oil stays elevated but won't breach $110 near-term without a significant escalation.

CME raised energy futures margins Thursday (see thread in Commodities forum) -- energy traders should verify capital requirements before Sunday's 6 PM ET open.

Market Charts


Crude Oil (@CL#), S&P 500 (@ES#), 10-Year Treasury (@ZN#) -- 30-day view

TGIF! Have a good weekend!

-- Fi

"The best edge is the one you can actually execute."