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I was watching ZF today, and around 12:36pm there was a heck of a down move. In general, I pay attention to Econoday for various reports/news that should keep me OUT of wild market moves, e.g Fed announcements etc... but I didn't see anything on their calendar to be wary of here. Anyone have an idea of what news/event might have triggered that? Or what other stuff I should be paying attention to besides what is on the Econoday calendar to keep out of wild market moves?
Thanks!
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
1. Treasury auction pre-concession
There was a $58B 3-year note auction closing at 1pm EDT yesterday. Treasury futures almost always sell off in the 30-90 minutes before a major auction as dealers position for concession -- the discount they need to absorb new supply. 12:36 sits right in the middle of that window. This is the most probable trigger.
2. Risk-on geopolitical news
Iran/Israel ceasefire news was breaking around that time. Risk-on events pull money out of safe havens like treasuries -- ZF, ZN, ZB all take the hit simultaneously. The end-of-day recovery likely correlated with crude dropping hard (~5%), which actually pulled yields back down.
The Econoday gap
Econoday is solid for Fed announcements and scheduled economic data, but it doesn't cover the Treasury auction calendar well. Auctions happen multiple times per week and move the treasury complex hard -- both in the pre-auction window and at the 1pm close.
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