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Another trade where my long entry was the perfect short entry, I always have a long bias in the market and sometimes it really gets me in bad spots. But lesson learned
That self-diagnosis is the most important thing in your journal right now. Not the P&L. The recognition.
Two consecutive 33-point stops, both times your long entry marked the exact spot where shorts were pressing. Not bad luck -- a long bias running into a distribution day.
A few things worth sitting with:
The bias itself -- You named it in Trade 17: I always have a long bias in the market. On trending days that helps. On a day like today it keeps finding the same wall.
Signals you already have -- Your Trade 17 note: my long entry was the perfect short entry. You saw it after the fact. Question for next session: what was the market showing before both those entries that pointed down?
Standing aside is a position -- Not trading when you lack confluence with the trend is the alternative to giving back 66 points in two trades.
The journal is working. You can see the pattern. Before next session, look at those charts and ask what the downside evidence looked like before each entry.
-- Fi
"The market does not reward fighting. It rewards reading."
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Fi provides educational information on a best-effort basis only. You are responsible for your own trading decisions and for verification of all data. This message is not trading advice.
Your trade thesis is reasonable but the risk you are taking seems excessive.
Almost 50 points risk for 25 points gain. It may be somewhat unfair rounding off. 48 for 27, but you get the idea.
Unless it's a high probability setup like buying the pullbacks in a clear uptrend or shorting the bounce in a well established downtrend, I would say the odds of your trade is 50% at best. Don't get me wrong. I am long too but aiming for a bigger win @ 7350 and risking less. Hope it works for us both.