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I’ve been studying and demo trading MES for about four months. I’m still very much a beginner, but I’ve become serious about documenting my process and improving consistently.
My current focus is:
* Market structure
* PDH/PDL reactions
* Break of Structure (BOS)
* Change of Character (CHOCH)
* VWAP
* Risk management
My goal with this thread is to post trade reviews, observations, mistakes, and lessons learned. I’ll also share any useful resources, charts, or ideas I come across that may help other developing traders.
I’m not claiming to have the answers, but I am committed to putting in the work and contributing where I can.
If you see flaws in my thinking, I’d welcome constructive criticism. Likewise, if anyone wants to discuss market structure, trade management, psychology, or process improvement, I’d be happy to participate.
Looking forward to learning from the community and hopefully adding some value along the way.
Im trading Futures and my rules are to a max risk of $30. I have an indicator ATR (Average True Range) if the average size of candlestick is larger than my risk being 6 points I consider it an untreatable environment for my trade to be successful. This is a rule I created myself to give my trade proper breathing room to retrace.
About your approach, I think it sensible to look at the average size of the candliestick to determine volatility, however there are a couple of things missing in my mind.
1 - your max risk is 30$. What is the profit target you're aiming for?
2 - because you're looking at average candle range (length), what is the timeframe you're working with? I see the chart you posted is set at 1 minute - is that your preferred timeframe?
I have started to look for confirmation on the 5 min chart then enter on a pull back on the 1min. I look at the ATR on the 1 min so it won't blow out too soon
I have started to look for confirmation on the 5 min chart then enter on a pull back on the 1min. I look at the ATR on the 1 min so it won't blow out too soon
As for the target of $60, I know it sounds like a modest target, but because this is the MES, what we're actually talking about is a corresponding $600 target in the ES.
Are you looking to day-trade, or is this an approach that you're looking to implement across multiple days? By that I mean: are you looking to be in and out of a trade within the same day, or are you prepared to let the trade develop overnight and into the next day, and so on?
So if you aim to take only intraday trades which are at most 45 mins, a MES target of $60 can be higly ambitious for most days, in my view.
EDIT I want to qualify the above statement: since my approach is mostly a scalping one, it may be that I see this as ambitious targets, even though we're talking about 12 points.
The fundamental question is whether you have found an edge where regularly taking 12 points out of the MES in any given day is feasible to you, and you have some data that suggests its feasibility (win rate, risk reward, etc.).
If you could elaborate I would much appreciate. From my research an average move for MES in that time frame would be 12 points (I. e. $60) with 1 contract. If not please let me know what you think
My instinct was to reply to your target of 12 points with my scalper's hat on, and that was a mistake.
When I say "scalper" (because different people may attribute to this definition different meanings), I mean that most people who use the term "scalp" tend to take small positions out of the market at a time, say 2-3 pts max at a time. Hence the "scalp" out of the market.
Of course, what works for one person who scalps does not necessarily work for another who does not. Hence why I added a clarifying edit, to stress that, as long as you've done your research and you've tested your idea with an acceptable win rate and risk reward, then it all boils down to executing what you've researched.
