Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
As Mark Fisher points out in The Logical Trader, casinos only have about a 1% to 1.5% statistical advantage over players of blackjack. If you can get your system to a 2%-5% advantage, then you're golden if you follow your system and practice good position sizing and money management.
"If the odds are in your favor of making a profit with your trading system, then keep your trade size consistent, cut your losses short, and know that, over time, you'll be successful." The Logical Trader, p.184
Of course you need an advantage to beat the house (your broker), since they win regardless of your trading results.
This sounds exactly like all the expectancy and habit-forming stuff I've been reading (or watching on youtube) and trying to emulate. I'm still discovering new ways to screw up though!
My trading time is going to be really minimized these next few days too. I've been watching the evening session a little bit. I usually do all my studying and learning at night. So I don't really like to watch the evening session too much. It becomes distracting from my valuable study time. BUT what I have noticed so far is that the evening session seems WAY less efficient. Price action principles are the same, but it just takes the market longer to get where its going. Maybe its an obvious observation but it was a big discovery for me .
Agreed. I am exhausted again tonight so I decided to sim-trade the evening session instead of study and let me tell you, if you are feeling like you don't have enough awkward, slow-as-molasses agonizingly frustrating action in your life, trying to sim-trade the /ES at night is 10/10 stars. I simply can't watch another minute. I couldn't even imagine trying to trade this live right now.
Something about that line just made me crack up. I really like the friendly characters he encountered. Its a refreshing read because futures trading was so different then. I'm sitting here cursing that all the cool trading platforms I want to try are for the wrong operating system (windows), and if I wanted to change careers and go into trading well that looks just about impossible these days, so here let me lose some more of my money before I go back to sim. Can I just be a runner???
So my first cycle, which was sim-traded, ended very positively. I had a good expectancy and I had a couple of my biggest winning trades for 32-ticks each. I once again felt like I'd found my edge.
But since going live I'm not really feeling that edge. I still have a positive expectancy, but I feel as though I'm gambling a bit and hoping that I'm using my strategy. There's still too much "YOLO" to my strategy, and that feels like something a pro trader would have to overcome.
So I'm going to pull the circuit-breaker, put an end to cycle-000001 (such a memorable name) and start a new cycle back in the simulator.
My focus has to start with sound statistical foundations so I'm going to start using Python3, Jupyter-Notebooks, and whatever other cool stuff I can find to help me develop my strategy.
I also really should look around at platforms and other brokers. There's a lot of stuff I want to dig into like reading the DOM, all the cool volume-profile stuff I see RT71 doing in Investor/RT..I really don't ever want to purchase a windows machine, and I also don't want to spend a bunch of monthly fees, at least not until I'm earning enough to justify them. So I don't know where to go next with this. I would prefer something that runs on a mac (i'm really a linux geek but not sure I want to deal with that in my trading platform). So that's where we're at. Lost and confused!
What i liked:
-
What I didn't like:
-
Goals for tomorrow:
- start using python3/jupyter-notebooks for trading research
- track all the stats!
- read
- be open to trading new instruments
final expectancy for current cycle
avg win = (8 + 12 + 8) / 3 = 9.3333 ticks
avg loss = (8 + 8) / 2 = 8.00 ticks
% win = (3 / 5) = 0.60
% loss = (2 / 5) = 0.40
current cycle expectancy = (9.3333 * 0.60) - (8.00 * 0.40) = 2.4000 ticks
progress towards challenge goal
$3000.00 profit goal.
$150.00 was achieved.
there was a -$100.00 current drawdown.
5 trades of 30 were entered.
I needed (2850.00/25) = $114.00 per trade to hit my target.
final expectancy for cycle was 2.4000 ticks