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Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
Posts: 1,038 since Jul 2010
Thanks Given: 1,713
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I can definitely see a test of the 1.3027 area again now that we've failed on the move higher (we're pretty much there). 1.2975 would be a half way back area but the big picture is still a downward trend. If we can break the swing low, I could see a test of 1.2450 - 1.25 which is a low volume area. A rejection from this level would create a bullish divergence on the MACD and may get more buyers on board. Then again, if we get some EU defaults, lower prices are possible. This move up appeared to be a test run to see who is willing to get on board. Any bounce from here will also create a bullish divergence which could get more buyers involved. Very tricky situation but I'd lean towards a bearish bias until we see the 1.25 area hit which is obviously more of a big picture perspective.
The USD is showing some nice strength again today having broken out of it's small bearish channel. The obvious target there would be another test of the recent swing high which works into 6E's price action as well.
But there is a simpler idea. Have a look at the noise bands and the volatility bands. The average daily range of EURUSD was 135 pips over the last 10 days and 138 pips over the last 20 days.
Every day the same traders are sitting in front of their screens, and when they finally all agree, the move is over. That's the rule of the game.
I guess, I should not have posted this, now everybody knows it.
Looking at the FOREX markets, which are a lot larger compared to 6E I do not think that this session template makes sense. I prefer to divide the trading day into an Asian, a European and a US session.
Therefore I use different trading hours
-> Asian session 5:00 PM - 1:00 AM CT
-> European session 1:00 AM - 7:20 AM CT
-> US session 7:20 AM - 4:00 PM CT
Therefore my third session, which I used for the noise bands, is actually the extended RTH session, representing the US session. As I use ETH pivots for all currency futures, the use of this modified template does not pose any problem for other indicators.
I would suggest the 3PDH that has long been in the forming looks complete at 12975, where it would go next is the next item to wait for (the usd would likely find resitance at 80.5ish, will the 6e turn up appropriately?