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Reuters
Saudi Arabia ready to raise oil output further to meet demand
Saudi Arabia is ready to increase its oil output in the coming months to a new record to meet a rise in global demand, despite increased domestic use, a senior state oil company official said on Thursday.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
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I was wondering the same thing, but demand/refinery runs don't normally peak for about 3 more weeks and last year actually remained at these levels through mid-september.
I think that was a fear a few months back, which is why we had such steep contango, but would think that looks less likely now, at least until Q4.
Demand is certainly higher this year, but if prices spike it can easily give up.
It wasn't my concern that time b/c of upcoming driving season but now I'm thinking about Sep or Oct as an overflow point. If current prices hold or go higher, production shouldn't drop.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
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From the chatbox...
@tturner86 : I would think a storm in the gulf would cause CL to raise, but hey what do I know...
Couple of things
i) I think this was a little bit of a storm that never was. I saw Shell evacuated non-essential personnel but I suspect off shore production was barely effected. (On a side note being in Houston, schools, business's all announced yday that they would be shutting today, and then today we barely even got any rain never mind winds.)
ii) With the Shale boom (all onshore), offshore production is far less significant than it used to be
iii) While storms/canes in the Gulf used to be very bullish I believe that they are now often viewed as bearish as the last several big storms we have had all destroyed more demand than they did production.
Legendary / Stochastic Calculus is not your friend
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Just curious if anyone has statistics on Crude price direction from the NY Open vs Inventory release (ie crude opened @xx.xx went higher and upon inventories reversed down to xx.xx) or percent trend continuation vs reversal