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I think you sum it up too nicely, but yes that is what I try to do, and as soon as I start live again, this january, Ill attempt to post my trades in my journal
Risk reward, that is my number one Achilles heel for now, happily though I think I am starting to be better at it
I think we share the same interest, even though mine is a little more selfish, in that when I share, I give it my best so that when wrong and I am corrected I learn fast. So you could say I am sharing primarily to be proven right or wrong and improve. I like a how and why i.e with chart posts when anyone feels I might be mistaken in my analysis. That helps tons with the learning process, and I try to do the same.
Well I no next to nothing about inverse head and shoulders, so I can't comment on that, But I can see that a support formed since Nov 2012, with what appeared to be a buying climax, followed by an auto rally.
When price goes back to support we see a massive volume on a long bar followed by a seriously shrunk bar with higher volume (this I think is called bag holding- meaning all the sell orders are being absorbed by the buyers who don't want lower prices).
That crazy volume up with the buying bar that forms the new resistance looks suspect (seeing the former resistance to the left where massive volume and selling bar broke gives reasoning), price shrinks when it trys to go lower and volume is lower.
A spring reaching 4.79 moves price to break the upper resistance (creek), price then flattens on attempt to return lower with the volume tending to drop as price trys to move lower. At the price that reaches 5.28, the effort had no result and the second time price goes low it shrinks with its volume.
Summary of positives.
Temp support formed that held and had a significantly positive interaction with price when tested.
Overall price flattened.
Downward angle broken
Verdict - Ill say the current outlook is bullish with buying done as fits the niche/ trade plan.
OK sounds good. I will say that being proven right or wrong is pretty subjective because you aren't actually managing a trade. In the case of NLY, let's say you buy at 10 bucks and it bolts up to 10.80 or 11, but then you never take profits and it quickly reverses back down--in that case you were correct in your analysis but you didn't exit properly and so the trade wasn't all that profitable. Some of the reasons I wouldn't be interested in a long play on NLY include risk-reward, stop placement, and opportunity cost. Where do you put your stop-below 9.66? You might get a 2 to 1 RR out of that, but those are tight parameters, and so that's where opportunity cost comes into play---is this stock, out of all the stocks out there, really where I'd want to put a certain percentage of my account at risk?
I like MPO. It failed yesterday at major trend line resistance, but overall looks poised to go up. I'd consider an entry at the creek or on a pullback to trend line support (around 6 bucks). I like the volume coming in at support there---appears to be buying. From a relative strength perspective, I think oil stocks are doing pretty well right now too (xom or cvx, for example).
The primary con here is that we are still really in a downtrend. Current level at 6.50 is a line in the sand--represents the last swing high in the downtrend, and we haven't taken out this swing point yet. My ideal accumulation bases will take out these swing points and then continue basing horizontally to build a cause to move up. Regardless, if I had to predict, I'd say MPO will move up to the top of the range to about 9 bucks--at that point it could go back into the range or it could keep going, hard to say. Check out BSX on the daily in early 2013 as an example of similar type of range--in that case the breakout kept on going.
I could probably make a decent case for distribution here, so even though I'm bullish on this stock, I probably wouldn't trade it because there are other stocks in which I can't make that case.
Here is the daily chart for MPO. Thanks for the post. I took this opportunity to test myself & analyze charts based on what I've learned so far. Looks like "effort but limited result". Here's my take:
For BALT. A successful test at 5.80 area should be the best long entry.
weekly creek is around 6.55, now stock has higher support since bottom, with Demand in background, the safe entry would be after JOC, enter at grinding down to creek.
NLY is failing. Not sure that I'd even get 10.50 to short--best price might be around 10.15 for a short (on a retest of resistance). I'm not trading this for real, but here's a trade idea:
Here is one stock that is on my watchlist. I'm looking for a shakeout to occur as the final piece of the range development. I didn't do much volume analysis, but that's because I view volume as pretty secondary to price action. I also don't analyze the market on a bar to bar basis, which is more of VSA thing than wyckoff range analysis in my opinion.
I actually think this stock will provide a deep shakeout to the 80ish level, so really a long here isn't imminent. Just an example of range analysis.
On that NLY example we've talked about, keep in mind it was re-priced because of the dividend they did. The key breakout/creek level is now around 10.00 ....