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I've said before the Euro has a way of defying gravity. I'm sitting here looking at the same trade as yesterday.
My fear is what might come out of the mouth of some politician. The numbers out of Germany were good and not much else to anticipate (on the docket).
I've had a boner since Sunday night about that gap which is still 14 ticks short of being filled. I'm going to stick my neck out here and tell the world I expect that gap to be filled before the 6E June '12 contract trades on 1.2950. There I said it!
Although I've never been to Pamplona (always wanted to but I'm to old now) running with the Bulls, I've heard the phrase "running between the horns." That's what this market feels like tonight. The calm before the storm, the deep breath before the plunge. What I'm missing is the accelerant, maybe it is the .618 fib line, or maybe,,,, it's 1.3050.
I'm long at 1.2982 I'll buy another @ 1.2972 same target as yesterday, plus a tick 1.3027......... I'll dump everything @ 1.2962
I suspect there is ALOT of retail money thinking / doing the same. That gap will be providing plenty of fodder for institutions to fill shorts. The fundamental picture is down due to the recent euro elections. I would ignore the gap until we make new lows relative to the daily t/f then it will become more important.
I think acceleration has slowed down and that poke down to 1.2910 may have found support. If this 1.2934 level holds I think it might rotate up out of here... IMHO. Might do better trading off of a word cloud of the politicians speeches.
“Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind.” - Dr. Seuss