inflation turn would trigger bonds, smalls since rate sensitive, but not yet near support

energy factor in inflation is also a hint along with real rates, post inflation

wary of overall index pricing, bit of chasing vs. real support, but vix is not bouncing, bonds bid

china rallied behind active gov buying, and possible hike pause/end to suggest returns into treasuries

small caps, more rate sensitive picked up as well finding support, though unsure of major support area

the mechanism of bonds inverse to indexes has yet to show

possible test of mid resistance levels, again correlation off. cpi triggered dxy drop reverting inflation levels

handspin 

the mechanism of bonds inverse to indexes has yet to show

waiting for this to happen, at some point risk-off bond buying isn't a good thing

right, rates dipping does not necessarily push indexes once risk off takes hold

looking at supports under 2020, possibly extensions to test 2015 areas

might restore the inverse correlation between stocks + bonds

there is the possibility of japanification, where once you start this style of yield control stimulus, you cannot really go back

either way the upside for large cap tech, mag7, etc. is less desirable vs. other instruments that provide a better margin of safety

this is not to say that anything could continue to rise, but the inherent risk is magnified for those closer to resistance versus support

vix pushing toward support, single digits would be interesting, indexes not following

the scenario where dollar levels combat inflation would shade commodities

and scenarios where yields hold or fall might also deflate indexes

vix may want that last hurrah however wary indexes may be

handspin 

vix pushing toward support, single digits would be interesting, indexes not following the scenario where dollar levels combat inflation would shade commodities and scenarios where yields hold or fall might also deflate indexes vix may want that last hurrah however wary indexes may be

When VIX breaks there's going to be some pain out there!
I honestly can't wait for higher VIX prices again. Be nice if it stayed in the 20's

the follow through release of VIX from previous day drop evident in everything now

carries via JPY are less active, some negative. with DXY drop, exported inflation

strong forex like AUD, coupled with 4% yields is a tailwind for domestic rates

//

as the basket against DXY appreciates, possible sourcing of domestic goods

VIX going to single digits / testing supports, may be an area of hedging

tracked over the current decade, might be the real area of reversal

(moment where tail event, yields drop hard, but indexes fall too)

also gamma burst to highs according to squeezemetrics while dark pools sold into strength in the daily