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No, I am long the metals. I expect the inflation to rise in Q2, and interest rates to move up slower than inflation. The current strong performance of the oil price supports this assessment.
I decided to buy silver futures. The COT data is extremely bullish, and the relation between Silver and Gold Prices is extremely low.
It is my target to help beginners to find their way in the huge trading universe. To understand what selling options is about, to learn to avoid basic mistakes, to get ideas how to improve your trading.
I do not take any money for that, and I do not have any other commercial interest.
If you are interested in my way of trading, you should start with a paper account and find out what your (!) annual performance could be. It does not help you at all to know, how much money I make with trading.
Maybe you can educate me. COT disagg... for Gold shows producers at 217k short. The specs are less long, so I don't understand how the out look can be extremely bullish. Can you please explain
Crude oil seasonals going into summer trends up, that with also OPEC/Russia possibly considering maintaining their 1.8 MBP cut and possibly extending to more i think it would be safe to write puts.
This in face even though US will probably increase their production, it wound be enough.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
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Something everybody keeps talking about is the massive record setting bullish non-commercial/speculator position in the oil complex in general and in Brent specifically. Fear is that when people start getting out of what appears to be a very crowded trade the momentum to the downside could explode.
In this case I would prefer buying outright futures to be able to make a quick profit on the upside, if you want to hold a long position in Crude Oil. In my opinion, selling puts is the wrong tool.
I am currently not invested in crude oil futures or options, as I - as a matter of principle - do not trade against strong COT data.