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Tons of oil bulls for the oil bear to smash yet. I want to see the guy with a chart showing how the oil bear is going to last the next decade then I wouldn't mind getting long.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals, U308 and Crypto.
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What am I missing? This chart shows spreads weaking a year ago.
Spreads are significantly higher than several months ago when stocks where at similar levels.
Don't forget production is a guess-timate. They dont know actual product until months later and the revisions are often significant.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals, U308 and Crypto.
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Production companies are naturally long.
It is argued that the majors are naturally short the crack spread.
The end user (aka us) is naturally short the finished product.
The first two can manage their risk (at least in theory) the third can not.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals, U308 and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,059 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,410
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Not at all. Appreciate the analysis. I like a lot of his stuff. Just don't like this one. Not like anybody ordained me as a God. Anyway mine is just an opinion of a small fish in a big pond.
At this time of the year I like buying the RB - HO (Gasoline minus Heating Oil) spread.
Seasonals, according to MRCI, are consistently positive until early January.
Currently, COT data for RB is slightly more bullish than for HO.
El Nino should take care of a warmer winter in the north of the US. This results in less consumption of heating oil and more consumption of gasoline.
The spread RBZ-HOZ has come back intraday to -15. I intend to buy further spreads in the next couple of days. (I hold half of my usual lot size since middle of September.)
I would be interested in the opinion of the energy traders here.
Thanks a lot !
Best regards, Myrrdin
PS: I am aware that this question is not directly on Crude Oil. Thus, I had placed it in an own thread, but did not receive an answer.