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No one is able to predict false break outs.......so you are not alone.........that is why is so important to already have your first target in the bank and your stop moved up so if the break out is false you will not suffer the consequences.
The Joe Ross "Traders Trick Early Entry" comes from a man that has a lifetime of successful trading experience.
Hi Mike
I don't know how I came up with that number. I started my setup with 10 ticks stop. It has worked most of the time and I feel comfortable with it. I know many people consider this as a very small stop for CL. But the way I trade, breakout and instant scalping with 7 ticks then move second target to BE+1, works well with this stop ticks. I may miss few good moves few times, as well as I may get stopped out on false breakouts, but it keeps my small account safe.
23-Sep
------- Total Profit : 110$ (1 trade, CL, mysetup)
I was busy in morning, so I missed few good entries earlier. But in afternoon around 2pm nice resistance line at 75.49. Entered long at 75.51. First 7 ticks got easily. Second trailing stop exited with 4 ticks.
24-Sep
-------- Profit : 20$ (1 trade, TF, my setup) Nice resistance line at 663.8 around 1.30pm.TF touched this price twice. So entered long at 664.1. CL took my order and paused for a while. I got scared and decided to exit with 1 tick on both targets. If I waited for some time, it was a winner.
No real trades on CL today. I did few SIM trades only.
27-Sep
--------- Total Profit : 20$ (TF, my setup, 1 trade)
Busy morning, couldn't do much trading. In afternoon nice resistance at 665.9. Entered long at 666.1. Waited 2-3 minutes, no breakout as expected. Exited with 1 tick on both targets. If I waited for some more time it was a winner.
Around 3.30pm, I drew a support line at 667.6. Thought about shorting there at 667.4. But then didn't go for it. It may have been a winner as well.
Lack of confidence in my setup is the issue. I need to overcome that.
Safin, ask yourself what you would have honestly done with these trades in sim? If the result in sim is not the same as in cash, then that must be your #1 focus each and every day. If you are unable to move past this, then you are likely risking too much money for your tolerance limits, or you do not fully trust your method. The first is overcome by making sure you can afford to trade, and trade smartly. The second is overcome by analysis and research, like through the aid of an excel spreadsheet that tracks your execution.