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You have calculated the number of DAYS of oil supply. Devide by 365 to get YEARS.
So 10.8 years doen't sound quite so exciting.
Also this 365 billion is only refering to technically recoverable SHALE oil. Whether it is economical to recover it is another matter.
@ron99 I suspect the 19 million bpd is the US daily consumption. So our friend Mr Flynn is laying claim to ALL the words shale oil. I also read somewhere that the US has reduced its imports to below the 50% level, due to record shale oil production.
I kind of see this as supporting the price of WTI. If the refineries are replacing more expensive imported oil, based presumably on Brent prices, with home produced oil there should be scope for the premium between WTI and Brent to close further. So I would not be surprised if we push back up to the next range of 95-105 for CL n the near future.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I would say that this would cause Brent to drop but I don't see it causing WTI to rise. Especially when inventories in the US are 33 billion above the 5 year average and at 30 year high and and couple of weeks ago were at 82 year high.
Here is a headline from Rueters from yesterday. Brent Slips on US Reserve Estimates
The seasonal charts for Wheat show it should be making a bottom soon, so I've been looking at selling some September Puts.
There's a bit of OI at WU3560P with a Delta of 0.03, but I get the monthly ROI at about 1% or less.
In order to get an ROI around 2% I would have to go to WU3600P, but the Delta there is around 0.09 or 0.10, which is a long way from Ron99's suggested figure.
I would have thought that a 600 Put would be pretty safe as price hasn't been below 655 in the past 10 years on my (continuous) chart, but it is in a long-term downtrend.
I'm watching September also. The bottom looks like it is trying to form here. The RSI is holding its ground with the price lows, a little weak today. I would keep an eye on the 670 level. If that is taken out then there looks like more down side pressure.
The Sep W contract has dropped below 655. Most recently 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012. They (2007-2012) haven't settled at expiration below 655 other than 2009 (467).
NG output from the federal Gulf of Mexico "is now only 6% of the country's
output, significantly below the 26% share provided in 2001. Unless significant
damage is done to production infrastructure in the area, disruptions to
production are likely to be small and brief," the analyst said.
When I calculate a Aug 1300 ES put with 64 DTE with 28.88 IV when ES futures are at 1631 I'm getting 0.96965. (I'm assuming that I convert 28.88 IV to .2888)
What does 0.96965 represent? I'm guessing it's the chances of being OTM not ITM.
If I remove the 1- at the front of the calculation the result of 0.03035 or 3.035% makes more sense to me.
So am I correct that
Excel:
NORMSDIST(LN(Strike/Futures Current Price)/(Implied Volatility*SQRT(DTE/365)))
in a percentage format would give me the chances of an option being ITM?
I just tried it on the OX Trade & Prob. Calculator - 1300 ES Put with 63 DTE and changed the IV to 28.88. It gives me 3.57% probability of ending ITM. ESU = 1622.75