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Specs/funds have 31% more short futures positions than last year. Most ever. Longs are about the same as previous years.
Also specs added CL & RB longs the week before the Fed report. So they had to bail when prices dropped after Fed announcement.
So I'm thinking futures are more likely to go down or be flat than go up since fundamentals are more bearish than bullish. Eventually the shorts will need to get out, but I don't think it will be anytime soon.
i chatted cust service (i emailed them a while back & got no response), they said its being worked on but there is no ETA for it being fixed as they have no date for the next platform release.....v helpful. i then asked if they thought the apparent continual procrastination wld potentially drive clients away in search for a better service elsewhere, and if this was in anyway related to the charles schwab takeover & got a copy/paste reply saying "no" the takeover was a "win win win" for both parties.
"Thank you for your email. I am very sorry about the delay. Please note that we have been working on getting this issue corrected. Although we do not have an ETA of when the fix will be released, please be assured that we are working on getting this as soon as possible. I have noted your account and will notify you once we have been notified of the fix."
A rep called me yesterday and said it was working fine. Nope. You you can get margin info if you use market price and not a sell limit credit which I use to do. Profit loss graph not working but that is really no use if you're strictly selling options outright....
Unfortunately it doesn't seem like there are a lot of other good choices for futures option sellers.
On a different note here are the trades I'm in and considering at the moment:
Trades currently in:
Cotton September 110 calls
Cotton December 120 calls
Crude Oil August 65 and 70 puts
Crude Oil September 70 puts
ES July 1300 puts
Coffee September 300 calls
Trades under consideration:
Natural Gas October 5.5 calls - waiting for us to pull back a bit and see how the weather looks in the next few weeks. Good seasonal tendency for NG to trend down for the next few months. Supply is strong, demand currently weak but could be a factor during the summer cooling demand months.
Live Cattle August 108 puts - currently supply is the tightest in 12 years with many livestock owners having liquidated their herds in the past 6 months due to increased feed costs (particularly corn) and inflexible elasticity on the demand curve. Typically June is the low for seasonal demand which picks up considerably during the summer months.
ES August 1250 puts - now that QE tapering fears have hit the market I'm looking for the overreaction. We may have already seen this with the test of the 1550 area. 1500 is a more important number and would ideally like to see us test this level.
Other trades that are bit further out might be selling volatility in the grains as we get into the harvest season.