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I bought the breakout out of the channel. +17 I may have sold too soon. Upon looking at this I need to develop an ATM strategy which has a trailing stop for these types of breakouts.
All things being equal I'd have to agree with your statement @Family Trader, with two exceptions, the timing of the Constitutional Court ruling and the extreme highs the market is/was sitting on. I've learned the hard way that politics will trump fundamentals and technical analysis everytime. Since price poked it's head above 1.2400 and closed there, the skuttlebutt has been a run to 1.3000. I believe the markets failure to pull back and trade at 1.2750 was the full speed ahead indication. I also believe many traders thought this morning's court ruling would provide the accelerant to propel the Euro into the stratosphere, and maybe it will, but the restrictions and conditions imposed by the high court may have caused (large) traders to take pause and actually read the ruling before committing to or taking their large positions. I'm sure more than a few traders were shaken out of their longs during the overnight session and are now faced with the decision to buy into the highs or wait for a wiggle and try to pick a bottom. That wiggle along with bottom fishing might keep prices under 1.2900 and cause a consolidation within the range of this mornings move. Lastly, there's the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision on Thursday (tomorrow), since I'm not an economist and have only a 9th grade education I rely mainly on my Ouija Board, and it says if traders want to see 1.3000 today is their best chance.
While I agree with you about taking the same trade, I would still ask the question why did it fail? Can you add something to you trade criteria which would filter out this trade next time?