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Exports are small numbers so the percent looks large but it really isn't.
Last week US exports were 721,000 bpd. Last year same week they were 387,000. So a gain of only 334,000. That's just a drop in the bucket in the total world oil use.
Also Saudi Arabia is exporting more refined product to get around the oil quota.
Interesting article showing time from deciding to drill for oil till time actually marketing the oil in US is about 9 months. Kemp is saying fall of 2017 will show increased US oil production.
OPEC’s strategy to balance the oil market and bolster prices is facing its biggest test.
The producer group is aiming to revamp the market by eroding a crude inventory surplus that’s depressed prices since 2014. A deal to cut output announced at the end of November, intended as a catalyst for trimming global stockpiles, had the side-effect of triggering a surge in U.S. production and a jump in the nation’s inventories to an all-time high. That’s prompted crude to give up a chunk of its post-deal gains.
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Bloomberg :- Saudi Arabia Says It Has Reversed a Third of Its Production Cuts
Saudi Arabia says it has reversed a third of its production cuts, raising output back above 10 million barrels a day in February. The kingdom, which had curbed supplies more than it needed in January to lead the way in an accord to re-balance world markets, boosted production by 263,300 barrels a day, according to a monthly report from OPEC. That figure, submitted by Riyadh, jarred with OPEC’s estimates, which showed Saudi production falling further last month to 9.8 million barrels a day.
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@manuel999 posted this over in the option selling thread. Very interesting discussion on Oil Stocks, Production etc and what it means for prices in the next 12-18 months. It really does make more sense if you register and download the chart package, otherwise its a little difficult to imagine what hes talking about.
Overseas Producers Retreat
WTI closed at $48.40/Bbl on Monday, March 13, 2017—down $5.61 since the end of February. Recent price weakness comes in response to market concerns about high U.S. inventories and rising shale output as well as doubts that OPEC production cuts are deep enough to balance supply with demand and shore up prices. The 10% price collapse in the past two weeks coincided with announcements from Shell and Marathon that they are selling oil sands production assets in Western Canada. These two companies are just the latest in a list of overseas investors reducing their exposure to oil sands production, including major reserve write downs by ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips and Statoil’s asset sale in December 2016. Canadian players that appear to be comfortable increasing their exposure to the oil sands have snapped up most of the liquidated assets. This note reviews the economics and future prospects for oil sands production in light of today’s “lower-for-longer” crude price environment.
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And if ever increasimng stocks weren't enough.... (if you listened to the webinar @manuel999 linked above, you'll recall these rigs won't start effecting production levels for several more months. ie Production is going to keep increasing)