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After the breakout of the channel the price went up and broke through the support. (see shaded area) It went down and tested the support then continued higher. As a general rule when a valid support is broken the price will retest it to make sure it is for real. This is a high probability trade if you have patients and are willing to risk 10 or 15 ticks.
5 minutes view of the shaded box.
I knew I wanted to take a trade. The key was where to get in. The plan was to wait for it to get within a couple of ticks of the 2750 support. If it did not make it then I would buy at 2780. As it turns out the price went down to 2750 and I got in at 2753 with 2 lots.
First target was easy decision: 2775. The price tried twice to go above 2775 but failed. Since it was a strong uptrend today knew there was a pretty good probability it would try to go through it again which it did.
The second target I set from experience. Whenever around a whole number such as 2800 go 5 ticks below it as a target. This will increase the odds your target is hit. I have had the price set to the whole number in past trades only to have the price to xx99 then pull back. I have learned not to be greedy. The price ended up going to 2807 then pulling back.
I like having two time frames. The 30 minute is perfect for finding a setup and the 5 minute is perfect for the entry.
I have to say this was one of the best trades I have made in a long time. There was no stress involved. I knew the probabilities going in and they played out accordingly. I am beginning to make the transition to a consistently confident trader.
Here is a markup of the GBPUSD. Currently in a channel long term and short term. I find this instrument harder to read because there is not a flow to it. There is alot of sideways movement then a spike up/down to the next level.
There was a definite breakout of AUDUSD last week. The question is will it continue to move higher or consolidate. If it breaks the current trend line it should retest 1.0345. It it breaks out above 1.0400 then the next resistance is at 1.0440.
Considering putting a buystop above 1.0400 and sellstop below 1.0360 to catch the possible breakouts.
Daily chart of the FX Euro. 1.3300 is the next major resistance. There are two resistance points. The first occurs as a resistance just below 1.33. The other is trend line started back in March and April.
The run up has been nearly straight up. At some point there will be a correction. Question is will it happen at 1.33 or before. Should be a interesting week.
Possible double top on the AUDUSD. Similar to the Euro there recent run up has been nearly been straight up. If it breaks through this reistance level then the next level is 1.08.
This is a closer look at the EURO from the prior week at the 30 minutes level. You can see it is a extremely nice trend. I am thinking if the price opens up below 1.3080, which is right below the most recent upward trend line, then this would constitute a beginning of a pullback back to 1.3000. If it breaks 1.3000 then next level is 1.2940.
Thanks! I have not messed around gold futures in a few years. Sticking with the currencies for the foreseeable future. Eventually I will move over to 6E.