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Must admit, i am impressed by your reading skills and maybe more so by your capacity to formulate a narrative that is interesting to follow. Gee! i am learning new things from your chronicles something which has not happened to me since a long time. I mostly use volume profiles and S/R, i know a bit of Wyckoff but found it a bit esoteric.
Did you learn the Wyckoff stuff by your own or you were mentored by someone?
Wyckoff and VSA principles at play in today's action:
Fakeout (Fake breakout) Bearish COB (change of behaviour)
No demand setup
Rally back to ice - Wyckoff /Bob Evans concept (1st test of broken support)
Upthrust
When you have time, can you define what do you look for to identify a change of behavior? Is it just when the last swing hi/lo is broken in the opposite direction of the current trend on your entry timeframe? Do you also consider volume in your assessment of a COB?
Wyckoff used to analyse the market in terms of buying and selling waves: WHEN THE BUYING WAVES BEGIN TO SHORTEN IN LENGTH AND DURATION/VOLUME AND THE SELLING WAVES BEGIN TO INCREASE IN LENGTH AND VOLUME, YOU KNOW THE MARKET IS POISED TO GO LOWER - (vice versa)
This would be a change of behaviour. When we have a COB we would be looking for a LOWER HIGH to be made and apply short set ups, good places are usually the structure of the market (resistance etc), confluences. We need to analyse a COB all the time as it unfolds, what further information can you obtain? Is it selling of high quality (decent volume and spreads) Does it break the demand line in an uptrend, does it break a support level? As you said do we break the last swing high? (this doesn't have to occur, unfortunatley using the Wyckoff, VSA method there are no concrete rules) On occasion we can drift sideways, slightly heading south, the volume maybe light and price action poor. BUT the wave down it produced could be 3x the size of any up wave and 5x the size of any downwave, this would also count as a COB using the duration aspect. Once you have a potential COB whats important is to analyse the proceeding rally, this is the key - it must show weakness, buying of poor quality.
After time and practice the COB will become clear, a COB is never 100% the same, yet the DNA is approx 80%, a slight alteration, a different flavour if you will.
Thanks again for your last chronicle. I was wondering as i am used to the terminology associated with the auction theory if the accumulation/distribution you are talking about is just another name for identifying a period where price is just in a state of balance. Whether price will break above or below is unknown until it happens. To me, the market has just two phases/states, balance or out of balance, contraction or expansion.