xplorer 

Define 'accuracy'.

Great question!

Accuracy (for me) = Number of Wins/Number of losses.

Of course, this number is meaningless without know the size of the wins VS the size of the losses.

A "good" system always has a smaller stop then profit limit. Unless the system sees the market change and exits a trade early before the stop or limit.

The picture above, could have exited before the stop or limit, but it would have been a loss instead of ultimately a profit.

I am self taught, so I may be using "accuracy" in the wrong way. Any advice you can give is appreciated!

SidewalkAerobics 

G=1:2 is correct for this signal. In your opinion can a 1:2 work? This is a back test that I'm considering for live trading. That was the worst trade out of sample.

well this is my opinion, i think r:r ratios are total bullshit, the market doesn't care about what you are setting as your goals and some times it needs a lot of extra room to do what you originally thought it would do. But then we come to the draw down, do you want to hold a trade for x amount of time in hopes it ends up fulfilling your original hypotenuses. Or would it be better to exit at a certain amount of risk and then reassess the situation and maybe get back in at a more advantageous price point.

This is something that i think is very hard to decided what to do, as many people stated on here hard stop losses are an account killer BUT risking to much capital is one of the fastest ways to go broke and im sure we have all done it at one point if not...get ready!

I personally think you need to trade with the trend, when the overall trend changes and its very clear then you can get out. I'd need to see a larger TF to see if that high was a new overall HH or just a very large bull flag. BUT you will need a large account to do this.

-P

SidewalkAerobics 

Great question! Accuracy (for me) = Number of Wins/Number of losses. Of course, this number is meaningless without know the size of the wins VS the size of the losses. A "good" system always has a smaller stop then profit limit. Unless the system sees the market change and exits a trade early before the stop or limit. The picture above, could have exited before the stop or limit, but it would have been a loss instead of ultimately a profit. I am self taught, so I may be using "accuracy" in the wrong way. Any advice you can give is appreciated!

I personally would change accuracy to entries with the least amount of draw down, this will help you look at all the "cream of the crop" trades and not this one where you had to hold forever.

0.02

-P

SidewalkAerobics 

Great question! Accuracy (for me) = Number of Wins/Number of losses. Of course, this number is meaningless without know the size of the wins VS the size of the losses. A "good" system always has a smaller stop then profit limit. Unless the system sees the market change and exits a trade early before the stop or limit. The picture above, could have exited before the stop or limit, but it would have been a loss instead of ultimately a profit. I am self taught, so I may be using "accuracy" in the wrong way. Any advice you can give is appreciated!

By 'accuracy' it then sounds like you mean win% rate.

By what you say above "(e.g. stop size/target size) you probably already know that win% rate alone is insufficient: you could have a system with a 95% win rate that wins 10 ticks but have such a big stop that the one time you do lose it eats all of your gains and more.

What is the expectancy of the trading methodology you describe?

xplorer 

What is the expectancy of the trading methodology you describe?

I had to look up the definition of expectancy: Expectancy = (Probability of Win * Average Win) – (Probability of Loss * Average Loss)

Expectancy = $1,204

What is a good target for expectancy?

It almost looks like a reversal at first with HH/HL. I would be out.