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In the short term, and in some cases, the long term, the primary driver of a market is almost always positioning. Everything is positioning... it's why we get rallies on bad news, and selling on good news; it's the reason why so many people are frustrated so much of the time. They don't understand positioning. In a nutshell, it's what trading is all about.
It's the same as in texas hold'em (which I'm not an expert in, I confess!). There are times when you bet large to scare everybody off. But often, your goal is to get everybody else big, when you have a great hand. Poker is about playing the other players, not about the cards you have. You are paid by others. Same in the market -- you are not paid to buy good news or sell bad news.. any idiot can do that. You are paid to literally take the money from someone else when they are too big and have a bad hand (relative to yours).
Of course! But it became illogical and I became irrational when after 6-7 trades with 70% chance and 3 completely random trades all turned against me- but instantly. If I or anybody wanted to have that result would have been almost impossible. Well, now the almost became Reality.
I do remember: I said to myself: put 15K, now the CL is low- wait a bit more to fall and then Buy. And stick with it. I didn’t do it. And that was the week when CL went negative- do I would had been wiped. And of course think: it was for me.
But it’s uncanny how much more often is not in my favor.
Thank you for all the advise from everybody! Even the facetious was on target.
Taking responsibility, watching the internal process, the subtle and overt changes and all other contributing factors is the Only Way.
You get it, which is good. To drive the point home: any time you are focused on yourself -- except from the standpoint of monitoring your mood/emotions/etc., which is critical -- you are not focused on the market. And the market is all that matters. So cliche, but so true. My opinion, past experience, amount of capital, emotional baggage, previous trade, relationship with my brother ... all that stuff is just 100% irrelevant to the market, and the moment I think the market knows or cares about me the least little bit, I've already lost, because I'm not focused on what matters.
Trading: The one I'm creating in the present....Index Futures mini/micro, ZF
Posts: 2,311 since Nov 2011
Thanks Given: 7,341
Thanks Received: 4,518
Honestly, you are in a business you know very little/nothing about. Hence it's a complete mystery.
You are not going to understand this so I'm going to help you with some analogies.
You can make great dogs and burgers on the backyard grill. You open a sandwich shop and lose money.
You hand wash and wax your vehicle twice a week and detail it twice a month. Cleanest, most gorgeous show ready car around. You open a car wash and lose money.
You shoot hoops in your driveway making 20 of 20. You play one-on-one with LeBron ...enough said.
Trading is about probability. Markets are anticipatory in nature. Risk is Absolute King. Traders know this ....real traders.
You don't even think about Risk. You think about profit. Your brain is infatuated by how much you can make...money money money.
Sorry if I'm rough on you but it is for your own good. I should be in bed right now.
Plan out what you are going to Risk each and every trading day, each trade.
Large account size is a monster advantage. (Not bragging, illustrating, educating) I could lose $400 everyday for over a year and still be in business. This gig is Dog-Eat-Dog my friend. I would never jump in the octagon with Georges St-Pierre. But you do. And wonder why you got beat.
I can say with total confidence, 100%, I stop trading after three trades that don't work. Never in my wildest dreams would I let that number become, 12 in 2 days, as you said.
This business is about being in control of your person. Using emotions as data. Knowing, Trusting oneself.
Nobody gives a flying F_ _ _ about your tiny trades or your orders. Focus on Risk and your high probability Edge learn about probabilities in general... but most of all Focus on yourself. Stop complaining.
Ron
...My calamity is My providence, outwardly it is fire and vengeance, but inwardly it is light and mercy...
The steed of this Valley is pain; and if there be no pain this journey will never end.
Buy Low And Sell High (read left to right or right to left....lol)
An individual trade won't have a 70% chance of success. An individual trade can either go up or down so it is 50% probability. If you have a system that averages 70% win rate that is only valid if based on a large enough sample size to be valid.
I just flipped a coin a number of times. Within eight flips I had three tails in a row. I didn't assume the coin was weighted against me. Three same results in a row has a 12.5% chance of occurring in a string of random events.
The fact your method is now losing suggests your 70% win rate came from a sample size that was: too small, based on a trade sample taken from a non diverse range of market conditions, or if it only works in one type of market, not stopped when the market isn't trading in that way; or you aren't taking the trades consistently.
"They" are not out to get you. The market is there purely to facilitate trade and go up until it finds sellers, go down until it finds buyers and constantly find a price where both sides are happy to trade.
You do not win as a trader, you just get to play again the next day. If that game doesn’t appeal to you then you should not trade. Gary Norden
If you see / visualize , think about , fear or have any shark related experiences while trading i suggest you cut back on the coffee or anything with coffee like effects ( wink wink )
You have issues and they got nothing to do with trading , think psychotic type afflictions .
Excuse me and not advertising, but the counter trend system I use is still working after almost a decade in the market and will continue working forever - because it's designed to enter trades after an exhaustion in any market. And as everybody knows, this will be there forever as any market on a short time frame cannot run in just one direction - there is an exhaustion after X amount of minutes. That's where I capitalize - majority of times when the trades work in favour, not since a year or something but on a longer time frame.
Of course I never win a hundred percent (instead minimize the risk) all the times, but who does apart from the big boys anyways?