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Not to belabor the point, but you say again 19/20 is "great scripting," and actually that is not necessarily true.
A random entry and exit strategy, with 1 point target and a 19 point stop loss, should theoretically give you a 95% win rate. But when you factor in commissions, slippage and limit order fills, a random strategy like that - even with 95% wins - is actually a big net loser.
We are thinking of playing the sport differently I think and obviously your strategy is working. I am working on indicators for now. With no profit target. Levels scripting come next. I think my subject line is not perfect. It should have been percentage of accurate entry and exit levels of a trade instead of win rate. I will script so that 1 massive trade loss doesn't happen. On a 3 min trade I won't keep 19-point loss on trail stop for example. It will be 3-4 points. So, if I have let's 50 successful trades on 3 min chart in a 24 hour period for 3 average points profit and 10 loss trades with 3 trail stop/script exit....that's ok. I appreciate your perspectives so thank you very much. Would appreciate further critique too. :-)
Nnot asking anyone for their automated indicators and strategies code. I just want to see how accurate can people get with their entry exit coding using automated indicators and levels. Just starting off here with automated trading.
My critique: I hate to be a downer, but I don't think your goals are anywhere close to being realistic, to be honest. 60 trades netting 120 points a day is $6000 per day per contract. I've never heard of anyone coming close to that. But I hope you succeed!
Thats fair. That's the feedback I am looking for. My calculation was just an example. I just wanted to get feel of reality that experts have accomplished so far with rapid entries and exits. I would however like to understand your startegy too. Not details you dont want to share.
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If your returns are normally (or even evenly) distributed then win percentage is important, BUT they rarely are. As @kevinkdog explained the distribution of your returns dictates your success. The example he gave is heavily negatively skewed. Other examples of negatively skewed strategies are mean reversion and option selling strategies. The obvious example of a positively skewed strategy is trend following.
If you have two strategies with the same mean and standard deviation return, but one is negatively skewed and the other is positively skewed you normally want to trade the positively skewed strategy as it has the better long term compounded growth. (If you want to think this through, imagine two distributions, one has a 1% chance of a 100% loss and one has a 1% chance of a 100% gain!)
That makes perfect sense. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
I am developing just one 3 minute chart trading strategy. Buy low near bottom sell near top on 3 min chart. Just bullish so far. Just getting my basic logic in so far. Programming is another problem. haha See attached report. This is backtest on real data. I need to get the gross loss down. I ran this one with one contract for 3 weeks. My trades are so far on an average hitting successfully over 60 percent accurate entry and exit. I'm wondering if anyone does this kind of trade and if they are over 90% accurate. Working on it indicators and next is levels.
This one is interesting. Do You explain the strategies here on forum? Or only sell via courses?
P.S. For me it's just the purpose of interest to see what kinda setup/setups is picking 20% winrate strategy.