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I agree. I tend to believe that successful discretionary trading is largely genetic.... I have automated systems, I am not against it in any way, shape or form...
I am not in that "crowd". I am a "believer" in automation, I automate as much as I can. Where automation fails, though, is with the rare occurrences that provide extremely lucrative opportunities.
I would argue that there still is a place for the good ol' Speculator...
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Here is the problem in moving back and forth between discretion and mechanical.
A good mechanical system is based on probabilities. Staying away from low probability trades and taking high probability trades over and over again.
Lets say you know 6 out of 10 times probabilities show a trade works and you have both backtesting and live testing results that prove that out. The problem is this the moment you use your discretion and do not enter a trade your system said you should have or enter a trade that your system did not signal your probabilities have now changed. This may work in your favor at times but over the long haul making random decisions about what you think the market will do invalidates your system because you no longer can measure it. The difference between being profitable and unprofitable is a fine edge. When you change your probabilities through trying to feel the market eventually the house will take your money.
"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
The above comment is one of the best thoughts in this thread. Thanks for the thought Xeno.
"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
The problem with that statement is, if the person you are talking to does not have a grasp of the concepts of statistical analysis, probability, and expectancy, then you are wasting your breath.
Monpere you are totally twisting my words around, yet again. I said to play the chartgame.com till you get to 100k with no indicators or statistics, then use the same tactics on CL in SIMULATION because it is in essence the same thing. Never just jump into trading a system that you barely know. Damn monpere do you even know how to trade?
DO IT ON ANY INSTRUMENT IF YOU SO CHOOSE. IT DOESN'T MATTER. the only reason I said to use the chartgame is because it allows you to speed up time, which makes it somewhat easier to come to the conclusion faster.
AND AGAIN, MONPERE HAVE YOU GOTTEN TO 100K? NO? then shut up. Don't post on my methods until you can back up your statements.
AND AGAIN, I still want proof automated systems work. no one has given me any or directed me to any proof. How do you expect me to even believe any of this. I know what works for me, but how are you going to make me believe something that is theoretically possible but not provable. You guys believe in Statistics, well I want statistics on a successful longterm automated program. Is that too much to ask for?
post the system, the statistics, probability, and expectancy. I'd like to see this. You haven't been able to do this for me before. Is this too much to ask for?
There comes a point in time when I just stop caring what others believe, I try to help them understand, but they will just keep making the same mistake till they learn it on their own. Those I can teach, who appreciate it, were already on the path to figuring it out.
It seems like you guys who use automated systems want to believe it's possible, you might get some statistics that seem promising, but overall you can't come to terms with the fact that it doesn't work. Its like the slow grips of fate tearing into your trading career. Can't trade discretionary, can't trade mechanically, and automation barely works either.
I'd love to be proven a fool that automation works on a retail level. And, that automation works on a more or less consistent level longterm basis. This would probably encourage me to pull out some programming books and get back into it. But, like I said, I have yet to see any Evidence that stands on its own two feet.
sidney this thread is for grownups. Please stop making it personal and asking for data that you are not going to get. Nothing anyone put up could be validated so it is pointless for you to keep pulling that card out every time your ideas are challenged.
This has been a good thread with much good discussion pro and con. But quite honestly your comments have been all over the place and quite confused. We are not asking anyone to backup comments with broker statements. But we are asking for logical well thought out comments that are not swinging all over the place.
"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
And, how exactly do you know I have not gotten to 100K? That is quite presumptuous. If you start with more then 100K, getting to 100K has no meaning. Have you given any proof that your system works? What kind of proof do you want? Why would anyone care to give you proof? What is that worth to them? Do you think satisfying your satisfaction, would validate them? Would that make them feel proud? Thank about your request, and ask yourself why would anyone entertain that request. Unless someone gives you their account information for you to login to their account and examine their trade history and account balance, then asking for proof is futile. Any 5 year old can bring up Microsoft paint, type in some numbers, and show you what ever it is you want to see.
In a medium like this, all you can do is present the arguments that you believe in, with the theories and experience that support that belief. That may convince some people, influence others, or just cause them ponder. Others will be outright unmovable, because they are too well entrenched in their own belief. No amount of proof will convince them, and no amount of proof will guarantee that system will work for them.