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I think it's a risky idea, and also a good one. How's that?
The micros make the risk different. Your 2-point loss comes to $10 per contract, not $100 as in ES. Your commissions are actually going to be a factor in a greater way than they are in ES.
It's good that you don't need that money to survive, because the odds are fairly decent that you will lose it, or a chunk of it -- not a reflection on your trading skill or method, just on the fact that live is different.
I know you understand the difference, but you did ask....
X3! I think the 2 prior posts pretty much give you the straight dope. I just wanted to chime in for support and well wishing! (Not completely sure 'well-wishing' is a thing, but I think the sentiment is clear...good luck!)
What is your commission structure? My brokers micro commission is a deal breaker for me.
Personally I wouldn’t feel confident trading 1 ES contract with a $4420 account and as such wouldn’t feel confident trading 1 MES with $442. 1% risk on each trade still feels rich for my blood and 2%+ seems unfathomable.
If you know the quantitative value of your edge, you could run a Monte Carlo simulation with 2.27% risk per trade and find out what the “risk of ruin” is.
I have the NT8 Lifetime license, my commissions are cheap.
I do not know the quantitative value of my edge, and I don't need to know it to know that my risk of ruin is high. This has less to do with the money than it does with getting exposed to real risk.
I start live trading tomorrow! I'll be using the same strategy that I've been using in SIM, except my entries and stops will have to be immaculate, given my size (I suppose they should've been or should be all-along). I'll be putting a lot of emphasis on good trade location, once again- no impulsive breakout trades. I'll be picking my shots wisely. This is going to be quite a challenge, but I really look forward to it. I'll be sure to document it all here!
Don't mind my scratchy hand-writing!.. and tilt your head.
I'll start uploading my plan (thesis) and ideas for the day before I start trading. Doing so will add a layer of accountability to my actions. That way, I'll stay in-sync with my pre-open ideas and not deviate from them at all.
As for today's plan- what was written pretty much encompasses where my head is at for the trading day. Very simple stuff. There is an opportunity from a purely technical point of view, but the arrangement of price makes an entry complicated, especially with my stop size. I'm waiting for the open to tell me what the best course of action is on my part.
So the technical picture I wanted to see did play out/is kind of playing out, but the market has poor characteristics: The open was relatively weak. Poor volume and volatility right off the bat that gradually declined into the state it's in now. When price reached the mid 2930's and the bulls came in, there was too much hesitation and idleness for me to want to enter. The one event of viable follow-through that there was, was a slow downtick roll after a 3 tick-sudden drop at ~9:46 from open prices. Not worth the risk, I need more action than this to make "One Good Trade."
No trades today- but all in all, in my dictionary, I acted as professionally as I can. I'll act the same way this coming Monday, which I really look forward to.
Trading: The one I'm creating in the present....Index Futures mini/micro, ZF
Posts: 2,311 since Nov 2011
Thanks Given: 7,341
Thanks Received: 4,518
IMHO market is waiting to hear/see from G20 over in Japan here are some details about it I posted. If something big, some big news comes out/leaks out the market might have a big reaction. Seems to me many are sitting on their hands too...me included. .....
Ron
...My calamity is My providence, outwardly it is fire and vengeance, but inwardly it is light and mercy...
The steed of this Valley is pain; and if there be no pain this journey will never end.
Buy Low And Sell High (read left to right or right to left....lol)
I might need to start paying attention to these kind of events / big news, because there was a reaction to that news, and it completed my technical picture (in other words, I could've traded today!). Is there any specific source you recommend?
On a side note, I invested $500 into Chainlink today. I might invest more. Look into it if you aren't aware of what's going on!