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I absolutely agree with your statement. Trading is built upon fads, exploitong those fads can lead to riches. The fads change in a similar way as species have evolved and changed on our planet. The carnivores need to adapt to the current population.
I would like to point out that the NinjaTrader Murrey Math indicator is a false transscript of a MetaTrader indicator. As it procudes completely different lines than any other Murrey Math indicator, it cannot be useful in the sense that you have described with conclusion (a).
The NinjaTrader indicator cannot even be backtested, because it produces different lines on a 2 min, a 5min and a 10 min chart. The original MetaTrader indicator would at least produce the same lines on all types of charts, as it was based on daily ranges.
But then I do not feel that I have to prove that Murrey Math lines do not work. It is just a waste of time, and I will go on to something different. Noise traders are needed to feed the professional traders, and noise traders also want to be entertained and need some pictures on their charts.
I have this setup there look for trend and trend shift.
I see it all a question about probability, and there are many indicators there can help to give picture of oversold, overbought.
Alot of people use trendline, trendchannels with indicators to give some picture if line can hold. "ES 06-12 Daily Channels 25-5-2012.png" I have fib target outside channels around 1345 and 1267,5. something have to give before or later.
Fib is a nice tool with alot of strategies. I use fib my own way and have spend alot of time to se how it's works and give some nice probability.
I have look at Gann's tools. some of them give nice probability, but Ninja is not the platform to use Gann tools. Maybe next version.
So I have a big CAD program where I put picture in background and can make what ever I want of lines. Only problems is CAD program is not so good for big picture. :-(
the idea and the content of this thread. Much insight is provided here in a way that can be useful in understanding the cognitive approach of different people. I do not think that segregating my own ideas in an agree or disagree arrangement will be very productive here....mostly because of the limitations of this communication medium.
I have seen the term "indicator groupies" here in the forums and that is good for more than a chuckle.
I do keep my eyes open and at least take a cursory look at everything. Most items like the one in question here are dismissed rather quickly. However, I do think it more productive to apply glue to the stuff that might produce good fruit. Should I feel like I need to warn the others here, in general...not this specific thread, by spending time to debunk nonsense? Gann would certainly not be on the top of that list (for me)...granted the connection between Gann and the focus here is distant and loose.
That item posted with link referencing the binary vibration across all octaves is quite amusing...but I have seen guys make consistent money with those ideas....BUT when I examine that I find there is almost always a much much simpler explanation. That then begs the question, why cloak things in layers of mystery?
I try to find contact here with people whose ideas and experience can make me better. Fat Tails, you are almost certainly one of those guys. When I reached out by asking if the screen name was an indication of Mandelbrotian statistics, you never responded. It was clear in my mind anyway, but I couldn't figure out why that question would not be engaged, especially in light of why the current one is....so that remains a mystery.
Concerning indicators on a chart, those are just visual reference points of where others might respond based on recent past behavior. In my mind I'm trading against the emotions of other participants. The evolving methods have worked well for me for over 15 years. I don't spend much time trying to describe that for two reasons. p/l is justification enough and most will discard or not understand the description anyway.
Thanks for the dialogue, the posts here are all very interesting. DB
Trading is continuously evolving, to me the question is not about finding the right system but rather understanding when the system and/or indicator is not working anymore(new trading techniques, new fulfilling prophecies, the indicator of the moment etc...), or even worst when the system has never worked . The cycle of these changes might vary from a few months to several years, while many traders do not even make it to the next cycle. One way to survive in this trading evolution is continously studying and exploring different solutions, even if we think we have the right system. We are lucky to have FT on the board, the greatest lesson is his hunt for the truth, as this job is made of many charlatans(I do not refer to the OP reference).
The reputation of FT can be trusted, if many young fellow traders will follow his advices they might save some money in their early trading, I had to learn the hard way but I soon became less enchanted and lost a bit of naiveness regarding trading.. Trading is getting more and more complicated, it's not just about knowledge but there is a technology gap which is out of reach for many retail traders, I am afraid that we will reach a point where even FT will be not enough and we'll be waiting for the new "Legendary Wizard".
Ok, you have a point. Leibniz was a universal genius, while Gann was a quack.
Maybe the best most useful thing to consider is the Kantian reconciliation of Rationalism and Empiricism: what we perceive is necessarily conditioned by the forms of our cognition. There's no way around it.
Our perception (of market, or anything else for that matter) is a function not just of empirical content, but also aprior cognitive schema through which the perception is formed and shaped (that's why it takes on those familiar forms that lead us to believe that we 'know' something).
We impose our cognitive forms on experience all the time. In fact, it's unavoidable, because one can't step outside of one's own subjectivity.
You are never in the wrong place... but sometimes you are in the right place looking at things in the wrong way.
However, my main idea for this thread was to find out
(1) whether Murrey Math Lines can be used at all, or whether there is anybody trading successfully by trading off those lines
(2) whether the NinjaTrader Murrey Math indicator has anything to do with the Murrey Math concepts, and whether there is an explanation why it uses a range of 200 bars as opposed to the N-day range used by the original MetaTrader indicator.