Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
If we never become obsesed as traders we would have never made it....this far :-D
" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
Tough conditions today. Up net 103, but in tiny little chunks. I can't seem to want to hold anything for more than 16-17 ticks. I have mostly caught the final pushes at SR edges, 6 here, 9 there...
And came VERY close to giving it back on a short that I passed on, was in 4 contracts and stepped back out at +/- 1 or 2, really don;t recal up or down, just wanted out. Luck that I watch the 6E volume as a standard, and something held that up with deep pockets that made me not like the short side at that moment.
I did catch a few ticks long... Not really trading. Confused about direction with this pattern. CL is broadening, as is ES, but CL held the major trendline. Not in any way that I would know how to buy it though.
What I just found interesting, some days trading in and out like I did today really frustrates me, as I intended to hold a trade longer and for greater distance than what I did. But today though, I am somewhat satisfied with the way I traded, even though my largest move was only 16 ticks. I recognized I did not have a clue what was happening on a larger scale, and so did not try to have an opinion.
And, rather than try to figure out what was happening by being in the market, I spent 90% of my time figuring it out by staying out of the market.
The only times I felt I understood what was most likely going to happen, either I did not trust it enough to want to be involved, as in the move up this afternoon (which was enough to get me out but not in, a shift I am working on), or small moves where price was targeting some minor pivot, and getting in and out in the moment of greatest momentum gave a high prpbability scalp.
Today had a lot of traders perplexed I would assume, myself included. And that is the thought that I held as I traded today. "Who is scared now?", almost.
I know nothing more than what I pick up from media and heresay, but If I were telling the story, the euro is being held up intentionally, as if to make a statement. "Are you SURE you want to bet on that?"
If that does occur, and if that is what I am seeing in the euro, I would believe it is the right thing if I were in charge of such things. Allowing a collapse affects everyone, short squeezes only hurt those who took the risk in the first place. So what if there is a trader with more ability to move the market. "Fair" is not a part of trading.
Of course, I know nothing, and I am betting that I will have more money tomorrow, by not betting for or against the euro.
I am not thrilled with it, but Wave C is still possibly in play, saved so far by a direct hit to the trendline, and now with a threatening stare at a staircase of stops.
If some news item could surprise. I had thought maybe the storm in the GUlf, but that went away...I considered maybe the Iran sanctions I believe are scheduled for July 1? And the EIA is next up...
I am drawn to the second zone, with nothing to base it on as of yet, and that in no way suggests I would discount zone 1. Of course, I may not have to choose if the direction is down from here.
But for today, as of this chart, I have no downside targets. With the major 5WM still presiding, until some proof of anything different, I have to stay with "up" for general bias. That decision feels less sane today than in times past, but more sane than believing nothing. Structure is how the market talks, and it is still arguing for up. I don't have to believe it for it to win.
I had forgotten about that quote, and never knew much of Sun Tzu or The Art of War, but I was looking into it tonight and there are several parallels to trading.
Here is one I just discovered,
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle”
I asked my wife tonight, "How much money do you thing I should make a year?"
I thought it would be $80k minimum? $100k? In my mind, I was not justified unless it was $250K+... Not that I needed that, but I felt as an image to myself, or to her, or to those who know me, that was what was expected.
But, if it is not, this might have just gotten a lot easier. Making money is not hard, making a certain amount is.
She said "Whatever makes you happy."
Fuck that, don't patronize me. I said, "OK, how about I go on welfare and bring in $5k a year?"
Her response...
"If we have a place to live, I guess that is OK".
I cannot rank the milestones in trading, as they are all so profound, but that moment may be the one that sets me free.
Can I end a year net profitable? Fucking easy.
10% annual? Are you fucking kidding? I could do that in a good month, or week even.
"Can I get back the millions I lost?"
...That is poison.
Tonight, from having kept such an honest journal, from deciding that to trade succesfully meant learning myself, exposing myself... I had the idea to say what I did to my wife, with zero discomfort. Five years in the making...
And I was willing to listen to whatever was said. From the perspective of a man who feels responsible for everything, our entire success or failure, that was the equivalent to baring my chest, ready to accept whatever damage came from it.
And she had the best response I could have ever asked for.
I am gaining momentum on a daily basis. If all I need to do is come out "ahead", it is downhill from here. No pressure, no expectations, is that really what I am suggesting?
Oh man, I asked my wife the same thing a few days ago. Same basic response. Whatever we need to live on is fine. Millions lost...not so much. Comfortable living, yes....I basically felt the mountain of pressure just melt away. I just need to do my best and be happy with the result each day. It feels good.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris