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And yes, like yesterday it occasionally catches me off guard (damn sure never again.)
Also promulgating the moonshot yesterday (other than closing out the current contract) was folks jumping on the band wagon, shorts getting hammered etc
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals, U308 and Crypto.
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I'm just saying that March options expired yesterday, so yesterday there were a lot of people still trading march futures against their options positions. Since those options have now expired though, nobody is trading march futures vs their options position today. Hence the transition from March to April being the dominant contract begins.
Futures expiry is on 20th. TOS platform start giving heads up 3 days before expiration. I will switch to CLJ5 on Friday - the day TOS will not allow traders to trade CLH5 contract.
Price action close to expiration gets jerky and requires long hold time. When it looks like CL is ready to go the moon it will pullback after hours of SONG and DANCE like this morning around 53 area. Price was stuck between 52.70 to 53.10 area for hours.
Some traders look at difference between CLJ5, CLH5 but more importantly USO rollover cost. USO incurs huge rollover cost. I do not watch it as that is beyond my skill set. I tried but it was not worth it. My solution- trade small and trade per usual plan with reduced targets.
Short 52.77 added to short 52.56 . Out flat 52.20. 2 hours of back and forth with 30 ticks bounces in between to make 50 ticks. Over last 5 years when i look at my records - always the same story during expiration week. No need to rush to take a position. One gets plenty of time to get into a position. If one thinks 52 area is long now, one will get plenty of time to go long and then get ready to enjoy JOY RIDE of back and forth.
My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
A trader tools which work like a charm on most days and while a trader read on price action and his/her analysis has reasonable degree of sucess during normal trading days- during expiration week KISS them GOOD BYE.
My posts are not meant to give financial advice neither do they imply that my method is special. "THIS IS WHAT I COULD BE IF I HAD A TOTALLY CARE FREE STATE OF MIND DURING TRADING" Mark Douglas.
I am not looking at moving averages alone. I am just digging into these. First, is the trend-line (I like to keep things simple, for example knowing how to draw a trend-line) Is there a trend or is the stock or commodity in a sideways trend. Knowing how to draw a good trend line. That's number one for me.
You are discounting the value of technical analysis, even a look at the 10 SMA is of great value.
I can look at the same chart, for example crude for weeks and weeks and still gain new insights into the chart.
And I think your are dead wrong about moving averages. Trading from a technical analysis standpoint is understanding the trend.
I am still low on the learning curve, I'll admit that right off. However, I do find that people on this board can get too over-sophisticated quickly.
As I said I am still low on the learning curve here, I thought and think that the 10SMA and 4EMA crossover would be good buy sell entry points. I am doing more of a short term trade strategy looking at daily charts. Not day-trading.
If you think you can correct me on this one, give it a try. I would value any input.