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Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.
ZM – Soybean Meal
Soybean Meal spiked higher on Wednesday but closed back below the 50 SMA and then continued lower later in the week to close back below the 200 SMA. If prices trade down below the 61.8% retracement level at 313.70 I may look at re-entering a short position.
HG – Copper
Copper intersected with the 200 SMA on Monday. I held off on taking a long position as the 200 SMA is already flattening and all the shorter term moving averages have turned over. Copper held above the 200 SMA for the remainder of the week.
6M – Mexican Peso
The Peso moved higher this week closing slightly above the 61.8% retracement level but not enough to trigger an entry.
6E – Euro
The Euro failed the 200 SMA early in the week trading back down to the 20 SMA where it found support and traded back up to close just above the 200 SMA at the end of the week.
SI - Silver
Silver made a new low for the move on Tuesday before turning higher and finishing the week slightly higher. I may be willing to take a short entry if prices continue higher back up towards the 61.8% retracement levels.
LE – Lean Hogs
Hogs were higher on Monday triggering a long entry. I had orders in back towards the 61.8% retracement level but did not get filled. Prices finished the week at a new closing high for the move just below the major 61.8% retracement level.
NG – Natural Gas
Natural Gas was higher this week rising strongly. If prices can surpass the 200 SMA I may look at taking a long position.
CC – Cocoa
Cocoa moved up strongly on Monday posting a bullish full bodied candle and then posted another bullish full bodied candle on Friday to finish the week just below the 61.8% retracement of the recent range. I may look at taking a short term swing trade if prices can surpass this level.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Crude Oil traded higher on Wednesday after the storage data and continued higher to finish the week. If prices continue higher up towards the 61.8% retracement level and the 50 SMA I may look at taking a short position.
GC – Gold
Gold hovered around the 100 SMA this week trading in a tight range.
DX – US Dollar Index
The US Dollar traded back above the 200 SMA on Monday and Tuesday but finished the week back at the 200 SMA.
ES – S&P 500
The S&P 500 was lower this week but continues to remain within the recent tight range.
ZN – 10 Year Note
The Notes found support at the 50 SMA again this week bouncing strongly on Friday posting a bullish full bodied candle and trading back up to the 20 SMA.
- Entered a long position in the Euro
- Entered a short position in Silver
Below are my comments on my open positions.
6N – New Zealand Dollar
Trade: Short 1 contract of June New Zealand Dollar
Entry Price: 70.30
Stop: 70.30 risking $0
Target: 65.22
Weekly Comment: The Kiwi continued higher early in the week filling the gap from last week before prices stalled at the 61.8% retracement and the 50 SMA. I may look to exit on a close above 69.50.
6B – British Pound
Trade: Long 3 contracts of June Micro British Pound Average Entry Price: 1.2847
Stop: 1.2497 risking $656.25
Target: 1.52
Weekly Comment: The Cable continued to be supported by the 20 SMA early in the week before rallying above the 1.30 level on Thursday after stronger than expected retail sales. Prices couldn’t hold above this level on Thursday but rallied again on Friday closing above this level at a new high close for the move.
6E – Euro
Trade: Long 2 contracts of June Micro Euro
Entry Price: 1.11005
Stop: 1.0854 risking $616.25
Target: 1.28
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices surpassed the 200 SMA after a long downtrend.
Fundamental: The Euro has rallied strongly since France elected a pro-EU President and the US Russian investigation continues to dominate headlines.
Weekly Comment: The Euro traded back above the 200 SMA on Monday but the close wasn’t quite high enough to trigger an entry. Prices continued higher on Tuesday posting a bullish full bodied candle. I entered on the close on Tuesday and had to switch from the mini to the micro contract as the closing price was outside my risk tolerance parameters for the mini contract. I was previously reluctant to be long both the Pound and the Euro but with the price action on Tuesday and the fact that my Pound position is still undersized I decided to take a small position in the Euro as well. Prices continued higher later in the week closing above the 1.12 level.
SIL – Silver (1,000)
Trade: Short 2 contracts of July Silver (1,000)
Entry Price: 16.90
Stop: 17.125 risking $450
Target: 14
Reasons for entering the trade:
Technical: Prices traded back up to underside of the 61.8% retracement levels of the recent range and the major range which are close together and also intersected with the 20 SMA for the first time since it crossed the 50 SMA.
Weekly Comment: Silver was higher early in the week trading back up to the 61.8% retracement levels where I entered a small short position. Prices didn’t rally as strongly as expected on Wednesday given the move in Gold holding below the 20 SMA and then falling sharply on Thursday but recovered to finish the day off the lows and then bounced back on Friday. I will my stop in to Wednesday’s high next week to lower the risk on this trade.
Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.
CT – Cotton
Cotton continued its run higher on Monday but finished well off the day’s highs posting a candle with an upper shadow. Prices then crashed back down to the 50 SMA by the end of the week wiping out most of last week’s gains.
ZM – Soybean Meal
Soybean Meal traded back above the 200 SMA again on Tuesday but fell again from the 50 SMA. Prices fell sharply on Thursday on the back of steep falls in the Brazilian Real trading down through the 61.8% retracement level. I had an order in during the overnight session towards the midpoint of Thursday’s candle but pulled it before the start of the day session where it would have been filled. I will continue to monitor next week.
HG – Copper
Copper fell sharply on Thursday but was supported at the 200 SMA posting a candle with a long lower shadow and then rallied strongly on Friday posting a bullish full bodied candle.
6M – Mexican Peso
The Peso was sharply lower on Thursday in tandem with the fall in the Brazilian Real trading down through the 61.8% retracement level but finished the day back above this level posting a candle with a long lower shadow. Prices then rallied on Friday to finish the week higher. Whilst I am reluctant to increase my exposure to the US Dollar any further, the price action appears bullish and I may take a shot at the long side next week especially now that the 50 SMA is so close to the 61.8% retracement allowing the opportunity to lower the initial risk.
LE – Lean Hogs
Hogs were higher again this week rallying above the major 61.8% retracement level.
CC – Cocoa
Cocoa traded above and below the 61.8% retracement level during the week finishing the week back at this level. There has not been enough positive price action to contemplate a long position at this stage.
6L – Brazilian Real
The Real crashed on Thursday trading down through the 200 SMA due to a corruption scandal. If prices continue back up towards the 200 SMA I may look at entering a short position.
Crude Oil continued its upward momentum early in the week. I had an order at the falling 50 SMA early in the week but pulled it on Thursday as I wasn’t willing to add any further positions this week. Prices rallied above both the 50 SMA and the 61.8% retracement level on Friday to finish the week on a bullish note.
GC – Gold
Gold rallied strongly on Wednesday due to Trump uncertainty but wasn’t able to close the week above the 200 SMA.
DX – US Dollar Index
The US Dollar broke down through the 200 SMA on Monday and continued lower for the remainder of the week displaying very bearish price action.
ES – S&P 500
The S&P 500 fell sharply on Wednesday due to Trump uncertainty posting its biggest range in some time but recovered on Thursday and Friday to finish the week only slightly lower.
ZN – 10 Year Note
The Notes rallied sharply on Wednesday closing back above the 200 SMA but did not follow through finishing the week with two indecisive candles.
- Exited my short position in the New Zealand Dollar
- Stopped out of half my short position in Silver
Below are my comments on my open positions.
6N – New Zealand Dollar
Trade: Short 1 contract of June New Zealand Dollar
Entry Price: 70.30
Exit Price: 70.30
Weekly Comment: The Kiwi rallied strongly on Monday closing above the 50 SMA and posting a bullish full bodied candle. Rather than exiting on the close I decided to wait and see whether I could exit at a better price during the overnight session but prices continued to rise during the overnight session and ended up exiting the trade at break even. The Kiwi finished the week even higher back up near the recent highs.
6B – British Pound
Trade: Long 3 contracts of June Micro British Pound Average Entry Price: 1.2847
Stop: 1.2497 risking $656.25
Target: 1.52
Weekly Comment: The Cable failed the 20 SMA this week trading down sharply on Friday on new poll numbers for the upcoming election. If prices continue lower down to the 50 SMA I may look at adding to the position.
6E – Euro
Trade: Long 2 contracts of June Micro Euro
Entry Price: 1.11005
Stop: 1.0854 risking $616.25
Target: 1.28
Weekly Comment: The Euro made new highs for the move early in the week before fading lower for the remainder of the week and finishing the week slightly lower.
SIL – Silver (1,000)
Trade: Short 2 contracts of July Silver (1,000)
Entry Price: 16.90
Exit Price: 17.32
Target: 14
Weekly Comment: Silver rallied strongly on Monday triggering an exit. I held off to see whether I could get a better price during the overnight session. Prices were lower in the overnight session so I added a stop order just above the previous days high at the start of the day session and this stop was triggered with a fair bit of slippage. I mistakenly entered my stop order for 1 contract instead of 2 so half of my position remains. I missed the opportunity to exit the other half of my position on Wednesday when prices came back down to test the 61.8% retracement level. I had on order back down in the low 17’s on Thursday and Friday but prices didn’t move back down again finishing the week at new highs for the move. I will continue to try and work out of the remaining half of the position next week.
Below are comments on the opportunities I am watching.
CT – Cotton
Cotton continued to move lower early in the week trading down through the 50 and 100 SMA’s. If prices trade down through the 200 SMA I may look at entering a short position.
ZM – Soybean Meal
Soybean Meal broke lower on Thursday and Friday making new lows. I had been holding out for the 50 SMA to converge closer to current prices and may have missed this trade.
GF – Feeder Cattle
The Feeders were lower this week finishing the week with a bearish full bodied candle. Prices are now just above the 50 SMA and the recent low and this area may offer a good place to enter a long position.
6M – Mexican Peso
The Peso rallied on Wednesday back up to the recent highs but did not follow through to finish the week posting two indecisive candles.
LE – Lean Hogs
Hogs continued to move higher this week breaking above the recent highs. It looks like I may have missed a decent trade here.
CC – Cocoa
Cocoa crashed back down through the 61.8% retracement level and the 50 SMA this week.
6L – Brazilian Real
The Real traded in a tight range this week finishing the week slightly higher.
SB – Sugar
Sugar rallied up to the 50 SMA on Monday and fell sharply from there finishing the week at new lows for the move.
Crude Oil was slightly higher early in the week before crashing on Thursday after OPEC’s announcement trading down through the 61.8% retracement level. Prices bounced back on Friday to close near the 50 SMA.
GC – Gold
Gold looks like it may have broken above the 200 SMA on Friday finishing the week with a bullish full bodied candle.
DX – US Dollar Index
The US Dollar stabilised this week trading in a tight range and finishing the week slightly higher.
ES – S&P 500
The S&P 500 continued its run higher making new all time highs.
ZN – 10 Year Note
The Notes dipped below the 200 SMA in the middle of the week but closed back above this level on Friday.
Below is my updated tracking sheet for May with the key metrics I am currently following.
Another tough month in May with all of my open profits from the previous month evaporating. I haven't opened a winning trade yet this calendar year which may be the longest streak without a winner I've had. I also reached a new low for my current drawdown in May. The markets continue to be tough for trend following and I will continue to reduce risk size and preserve capital until things start to look better.
The month doesn’t look as bad on the new tracking sheet as the open profits were never accounted for in this version.
Trade: Long 3 contracts of June Micro British Pound Average Entry Price: 1.2847
Stop: 1.2497 risking $656.25
Target: 1.52
Weekly Comment: The Cable was initially lower on Tuesday and Wednesday but found support each day and finished higher. I had an order at the 50 SMA but prices didn’t trade low enough on Wednesday to trigger the order.
6E – Euro
Trade: Long 2 contracts of June Micro Euro
Entry Price: 1.11005
Stop: 1.0854 risking $616.25
Target: 1.28
Weekly Comment: The Euro fell sharply on Tuesday but recovered to finish the day slightly higher and post a candle with a long lower shadow. Prices continued higher for the remainder of the week finishing the week at new highs for the move.
SIL – Silver (1,000)
Trade: Short 2 contracts of July Silver (1,000)
Entry Price: 16.90
Exit Price: 17.32
Target: 14
Weekly Comment: Silver held below the 50 and 100 SMA’s early in the week. Prices fell during the overnight session on Thursday. I had an order in the low 17s that just didn’t get hit in the overnight session and I decided to move the order lower to 16.95 before the start of the day session. Prices did initially move lower during the day session but did not move quite low enough to trigger my order before reversing to finish the day slightly lower and post a candle with a lower shadow. Prices then rallied strongly on Friday after the weak employment report closing back at the 100 SMA.