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for those not sure what I mean when I say "GAPS LOVE TO GET FILLED" .. not sure of the exact mechanism and not sure if this is a real phenomenon or a self-fulfilling prophecy .. but unlike NQ && ES .. the QQQ && SPY do not trade 24 hours a day .. think they may trade during the EURO but not sure ..
like yesterday (Oct 2) and today (Oct 3) .. on Oct 2 the QQQ closed at 361.310 .. GAP QQQ 1.fw
on Oct 3 the QQQ opened at 358.78 .. a $2.32 gap down.. GAP QQQ 2.fw
since the QQQ is correlated to NQ and the SPY is correlated to ES .. AND since the NQ && ES trade 24 hours and the QQQ && SPY dont .. we can see a difference between the close of the previous day and the opening of the current day ..
you can see this gap on the NQ or ES by looking at the opening price for the current day and comparing it to yesterday's close .. some will use close during Regular Trading Hours (RTH) and others use Electronic Trading Hours (ETH)
I do not have any real statistics on this .. but instinct tells me gaps get filled 70% - 80% of the time
I have seen NQ price move 100 points in the opposite direction and then reverse and move 200+ in the opposite direction to close the gap ..
I tend to trade a little more aggressively when I see the gap and I see the price headed in the direction of the gap ..
.. you don't have to be the first one at the party .. just be part of the party ..
nice && easy day .. 1 contract .. 5 trades .. 96 ticks .. 1 account .. 72 ticks in 10 minutes .. 24 ticks in 10 more minutes .. 96 ticks .. done in 20 minutes
23 10 04 NQ.fw
Summary 23 10 04 NQ.fw
the second day in a row ATR Dashboard has shown NQ having almost 100 tick ATR .. almost 200 tick 2X ATR Stop Loss .. 1% Risk doesn't work for NQ at this ATR .. need 2% Risk or go to 5 MNQ ..
.. you don't have to be the first one at the party .. just be part of the party ..
Thanks everyone for your comments, I've read them and in the process of figuring out how to apply your suggestions.
My biggest hurdle is still limiting myself to a small red day. I thought last month was the last time.... i ended up with three fat red days.
I just have a hard time acknowledging the red day, and it just comes down to me not focusing on the big picture... I've been looking at it as part of my daily routine, to remind myself the goal is to make it through for a month with small red days.
I've been trading sim last few days, today was back on APEX EVAL... will continue recording tomorrow..
started as an aviation fire control technician .. basically the radar, computers, missile guidance system, etc for the F-4J Phantom II ..
was selected for MARCAD in 1970 .. one of the enlisted commissioning programs .. ended up flying in the back seat of the F-4J Phantom II as the Radar Intercept Officer (RIO) .. known today as Weapons System Officer (or WizzO's) .. when you watch the Top Gun: Maverick movie .. I was "Bob"
's husband was in USMC and was F-4B pilot
.. you don't have to be the first one at the party .. just be part of the party ..
had two losses today .. although each losing trade triggered the max loss per trade, the profit from earlier trades offset the loss and my account balance did not trigger the max loss for the day .. so I got my head back in the game .. focused on my discipline .. and kept trading .. the day ended green at +128 ticks ..
three days this week I've had one or more losses .. my biggest loss was about 1.05% of the account balance and most of the other losses were about 0.5% of the account balance .. but overall my week has been green since the second loss on Monday morning .. think my total for the week is green about +400 ticks // +370 ticks (net) .. commissions are a little high from when I switched to more of a scalping strategy ..
my friend Aaron (also a US Marine .. a Mustang.. SSgt > Capt, ret) says the keys to successful trading are
<Proper Tools>
..Risk Management
..Good Strategy
..Good Market Timing
day started off really good .. was going to stop but ended up taking one more trade .. a losing trade .. lost $225 .. darn it, watched the market for a bit .. got my head back in the game, and came back strong .. ended with a great day .. today ended a great week .. green +572 ticks (net) for the week ..
23 10 06 ES.fw
love it when the daily profit target ($600) is reached and the buttons disappear ..
Summary 23 10 06 ES.fw
.. you don't have to be the first one at the party .. just be part of the party ..