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Thanks to Aslan, I now have the following on my Trading Bulletin:
5 Fundamental Truths
1. Anything can happen
2. You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money
3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge
4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another
5. Every moment in the market is unique
To be a consistent winner, I must integrate these 7 principles/beliefs of consistency into my mental system at a functional level:
1. I objectively identify my edges
2. I predefine the risk of every trade
3. I completely accept risk or I am willing to let go of the trade
4. I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation
5. I pay myself as the market makes money available to me
6. I continually monitor my susceptibility for making errors
7. I understand the absolute necessity of these principles of consistent success and, therefore, I never violate them
All these "I" remind me of owning the trades and be the only one responsible for the outcome!
Back to focussing on Fade the Extremes set-up when price gets close to the following areas:
VPOCs: Bottom 1123.75 Top 1153.00 (currently trades around 1143 area = gap up of 8 points or so and it's outside yesterday's Value Area 1121.25-1135.25)
1. Took one A- trade. It's high chance that it's not a 1-2-3 reversal trade that I thought I was taking.
2. Price Action an A LOL! Upon completion of the A- trade, my eyes were solely on the price bars for 30+ minutes. Given time, I am very confident that I will develop a very good relationship with the bars.
Emotion - Quite calm. I worried a little about my mislabelling and was prepared to close the trade early with more warnings. The 4-Range set-up helped me staying in the trade.
Note on the enclosed Trade Log:
I adjusted an 8-tick PT (the usual PT for the second contract) to 4 and that's why Target2 was hit before Target1.
Today's Initial Balance: 1140.25 - 1147.50 (7.25 points)
Today's Value Area as at 10:51 am: 1146 - 1144 - 1141 (5 points)
ES opened at 1144.00
At the time of writing, price is trading around 1135.00 area and has moved back to previous day's Value Area (1121.25-1135.25). Not sure if it wants to touch the bottom VPOC @1123.75.
Will it repeat what has been happening, ie rotating up or down to extend the daily range to a 2-digit one? Let's always trade with the TREND!
Price has dropped more than 8 points (from today's Close @1118.25). If it continues trading below 1110.75 (current Bottom VPOC) when the market opens tomorrow, I will not have a Bottom VPOC for reference. Instead, 1110.75 may become the Top VPOC.
I will consider the following and see if it may find support there:
1. Finally an A+ trade this morning. I believe I followed my plan 1,000,000,...% haha .. I was looking for a Short opportunity because of the overnight fall (down to 1104.75 - wow) + its open was substantially below yesterday's Close. I was patiently waiting for its climb to yesterday's VAL 1121.00 and more. Noticed rejection and grasped a Short trade.
2. Price Action a B. I paid attention to the formation of the price bars esp if they have a buying or selling tail and how each related to the former and latter ones. Noticed there're simple Up and Down patterns (= great great signals) and more balanced or undecided ones. It will require more practice and watching. I will continue sharpening my "visual" skill.
Note: B is Great because it will remind me to work harder!! In reality, one needs lots of practice to develop the PA talent.