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Right about that there is no such thing as a lock. There are high and low probabilities but anomalies happen and things can change.
"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
True, but there are approaches that come awfully close to a lock for that little a gain. 25% a year is not very much for a well diversified portfolio. It has been said many times by the greatest traders, that if they were to publish a consistent and winning system on the front page of the Wall Street Journal, only already profitable traders would use it for profit.
The same is true when I read posts about how automated systems don't work. That is only because the client doesn't know how to qualify a system or read the statistics. There are good and bad systems, and it is possible to tell them apart. You need the following:
1) Have enough knowledge to qualify a system.
2) Stick to strict money management rules.
3) Stick to the rules of the system.
Take a look at Trading System Lab (I have absolutely no association). He is strictly mathematical and builds portfolios of instruments (ie Gold, Euro, S&P index) as well as portfolios of strategies. When you do this properly, you then transform the equity curve to near a straight line where there is little draw-down vs gain. If you then took just 1/10 th of your cash, lets say $500,000 then you could at least make 50% on that in one year. If you then kept growing just that account, very quickly you would achieve your goals without touching the other $4.5M. Put that aside in very secure bonds or treasuries. - Cash is king, you don't need a lot of cash for trading!
Good luck in finding your way. There are many sharks in the water, but with statistics and probabilities there is a way to cut through the mud.
I would agree 25% is not that difficult but not a lock.
"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
25% "is not that difficult" ... hmmm ... okay, well, I'll be looking forward to seeing your hedge fund knock the socks off of 95% of the professional money managers out there. Good luck!
No question, but driving to work every day is not a guarantee of making it there alive. There are no guarantees in life, even US Treasuries are not guaranteed investments. But what on earth is safer? It is all in the ratios of risk vs. return. If you want to risk 1/10th of your assets you can do so with very high likely-hood of high returns. In that case your risk is 1/10th of all your assets in order to make 1/20th of all your assets in profit. If you compound that, the risk goes lower and lower as you trade profits and leave the original capital on the side. That is as close to a lock as I can see.
furytrader the right strategy that allows you to scale can easily produce excellent returns. Geometric account growth is an amazing thing. 25% is not that difficult. In fact if I could not get more than 25% I would do something else. The money managers trade so much size it is a different game. They can't employ many of the same types of strategies the small guys use to produce returns. So what I do would not translate into the money manager world. Really doing what most of us do compared to the big funds is like comparing Apples to Oranges. The ball they have to roll up hill to get returns is just so big.
There is a point in every strategy where the size can get so big that it begins to diminish returns on a percentage basis. I have not hit that point yet.
"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
Regards to original post. arbman1, if you had that much capital to start with, maybe look into conservative option spreads strategies. Tiberius has a trade journal with some option spread trades sometimes. I have my own too, paper only, but I'm still learning with lots of stumbles. Also, check out the "selling options on futures" thread. And this website. Managed Stock Option Selling with Option Trading Strategies They run a 25 million fund. And entirely run their fund on selling options on futures and they only use maybe a third to half of the total fund.