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I also tend to only trade around the Europe open. But in some cases, like this short I took a few minutes ago, the opportunity seemed too good to pass.
If I were looking for ideas to support my short position, I would say:
- The new HH at 14:33 is not supported by CDV, which shows a LH and more sellers than buyers
- The new HH was probably an attempt to shake out shorts
- The resistance near the session high, and the S2 pivot, is holding
- The gap did not fill, a bearish sign
Now, I always try to look for reasons that I might be wrong as well:
- The channel is moving upward, yet I am short
- The later half of the day showed nothing but buying
- The S3 support and 1.3600 area held pretty well
Now there is nothing left to do but sit back and see if I am right, or wrong, about the trade.
To be honest I just pulled my stop to break even at the end of the London session on Friday and kept it open over the weekend, hoping that it would leave me enough space to avoid my stop being hit. I was also very aware of the meeting of EU Ministers and was hoping their inability to do anything useful would continue. Luckily the market didn't like the news to much and the market gaped in the direction I wanted today.
The S&R was drawn looking back a year and my thinking was that it represents a strong demand and supply zone and the EUR was acting weaker than the other USD based pairs over the past 2 weeks.
Let's see if my target gets hit, my analysis might be completely wrong.
Heres the 1 min. volume for MBT (single contributor) on esignal for this morning . Im assuming its the # of ($10k) units trading hands through MBT = "volume" but I can follow up with esignal on that . Volume for forex is difficult like you said but I see some patterns here that we could use to our advantage , perhaps for a heads up on end of a move to take profit .
Mike, will you please post the updated chart for this trade? See where you exited? I'm also interested in using the cumulative delta and i think you and I are thinking pretty much the same way about it as a compliment, not a signal or indicator, but as a compliment to price, almost a part of price if you get what I mean.