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I talk myself out of more trades because of this. I still have to learn to just trade every setup and not try and be selective as you said, "Trade what you see, NOT what you think."
Don't be controlled by GREED, Led by FEAR, or Puffed up with PRIDE!
hi guys, sorry i didn't trade last 2 days cause was out of internet connection. I live in a new part of a small town and things are coming here very slowly, was using internet by radio and the antenna was off due to a short circuit. Anyway, i'm back today with 2 internet connections. one fiber and the radio will be backup now.
Today i tried to go long at the opening, as soon as it came back from lows, gained the opening at 2358 and came back to test the opening. i saw people going long at 2258.50 and a few going short, so i hit the 58.5 and was stopped, my stop loss was below the open.
the second trade (at 02:35) i was expecting was buying at the minimum if i had a stop loss, after the opening yesterday i saw we have only people buying from 53 til 55, so i went long, 2 contracts. 1 took 2 tick profit as i use to do to minimize my risk and another one i'd like to leave close to the opening. Price went up one time and didn't get the open, again and didn't get it and when it stopped i decided to take my profit and leave.
The two trades are very close to each other, that's why they are at the same video. Very low volume today so i decided to be out the rest of the day.
Buyers were strong, til the open. Opened at historical maximum, 2366.50, i wouldn't go long at this point, should have gone short as soon as the price lost the open, didn't hit and prefered to wait and check maybe it could come for more highs.
the first trade i went long at 2263.00, price came to 2262.75 that was the top of the previous's day value area. 1 i left with 2 ticks profit and would wait for the price to get the open again. Had many chances to leave at 2264.50, i saw more sellers than buyers, but, anyway, we never now what side the market is going to, we can say what the market is trying to do and the first trade i could bet it would search for new highs. Anyway, there was no risk anymore.
Market took much time to go beyond the 2264.50 and i knew if it came back to my price i had to leave, market conditions were different. Put the stop loss for the last contract at the price i entered and waited. Price came back and took me out, 2 ticks gain only.
Lesson: don't be big eyes, take your profit, i could have left with 8 ticks, anyway i knew that if 2262.75 became offered i had to hit cause it was coming for new lows.
That's the second trade. Market put me out of my long and when it came to 2262.75 offer i hit the 2262.50 (went short there). I'm not confortable with breakouts, and took some time to take my first contract (the trade were 2 contracts) with 2 ticks profit, so i moved my first exit to 1 tick profit. As soon as it was hit i put my stop loss at 2262.75. real breakouts rarely come back and once i had 1 profit there was no risk anymore. Price came close to 2261.00 that was previous's day close and i took my profit there.
These were the trades for yesterday. Thanks for reading and watching. Any doubts please let me know.
Of course you can DionysusToast. What passes is that i know that if big players feel a breakout will happen when the breakout happens they are already long or short and they can buy or sell the breakout too, but they are already positioned and have no stop loss anymore. Watching the ES on december and january i saw many false breakouts and these reasons make me feel uncomfortable. sometimes i prefer not to do and wait the next entry when it happens. Risk is greater at breakouts and can be death for small accounts like mine.
About yesterday specifically we had a huge probability that a breakout would happen at that price but in my opinion it was not the best trade. The best trade was going short at the open and waited for the breakout to happen. i was looking with big eyes for new highs and that's why i was long first.
The first trade i did i went short at 2354.75, 2 contracts, and was stopped. Will tell you why entered short there. 2355 was the bottom of 02/23's value area so i was checking if it was going to hold the upmove. Should have entered with 1 contract only. Anyway trading is this way, was stopped and was looking for the next one.
This day my huge error was going against the trend, should have looked up for going long instead of going short at new highs, anyway, that's what i did and will show you:
The second trade i went short at 2357.75, 2 contracts because the upmove stopped there and was the top of the value area. Left 1 contract with 2 ticks profit and moved the stop of the another one 2 ticks above my entry price. Price moved up and took me out of the trade. No loss on this trade, only comissions for 2 contracts. below is the video:
The third trade was against the trend too. The difference in this trend is that i was sure that against the trend you have to take a few ticks and leave. i went short, 2 contracts, at 2359.25. Why? because price would have to break out the top and usually it doesn't brake at the first time. what i saw too is that a few traded above this price, 188 contracts at 2359.75, so if price got 2260 i had to stop. took 2 ticks profit in the first one and as soon as i saw price stopping at 2358.25 and people wenting long at 2258.5 i decided to quit the trade:
It was one of the best days for me. Market opened and i was waiting to see if 2265 that was friday's close would hold the upmove. Should have sold ther and didn't go short, anyway, price came and tested the open for two times. At the third time when i saw people going short i went short too, 2 contracts. Took 2 tick profit in the first one and the other one took my profit at the bottom. I knew market could come back and retest the open before went down again. This way, when price came back to test the open i had a little profit and decided to go short again, 2 contracts. Did the same. left the first 1 with 2 ticks profit and was thinking about having a target down to 2254, the bottom of friday's value area. A down move usually comes fast and started to take much time at 2262. once i had profit and told that would not be big eyes, took my profit and left.
These are the trades i did today. Watched the market develop some more time and found it a little tough so decided not to risk the money i had anymore.
It's not for me either - although with the market as it is now, I think it may become more of a stock trade.
The good thing about breakout trades is the fact that they are concluded fairly swiftly. If a market looks like it'll break, you will be proven right or wrong very quickly. It does give you a trade you can get into and then be confident to cut if it doesn't move. In theory - the move back into the range will be slower than the break, so you have a time advantage (most of the time). So I do think there are benefits in that specific location.
The headfakes themselves aren't something that put me off the breakout trades because as you say - they are actually quite obvious. They are also usually 3-6 ticks away from the break so there's room for a little profit.
I think what we have there are 2 behaviors that can be exploited. The breakout in my opinion is the trickier one and the headfake is the easier one.
Thanks for sharing your knowledge with me DionysusToast!
i'm not familiar with some trading terms in english but seems to me that headfakes is when you think, for example, market is going up and in fact they are trying to attract buyers so they can sell and take our stops, a false breakout? you're very right about the headfakes, i have observed for times, they are usually at least 3 ticks from the breakout. i traded them some times last month. what learned from them is that most of the days price goes to maximum and they're one of the best entries you could do in a daytrade. In my case i must confess i need to hold position for more time what is usually something i don't do because of the size of the lot too. once i'm having some profits and i see price stopping i use to quit and take my profits.
About breakouts what i use to check if price is in previous day's range or in value area to evaluate the breakout and i agree with you, they are concluded fairly swift. If it takes time to break be out or enter against the breakout.
I saw you have a premarket prep journal, nice, will check it!
Daniel