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I trade the Russell because it seems to create an easier structure to read more often, but that's just a guess. When I think about it its because someone told me a long time ago. So many markets, so little time. Really I should switch back and forth and know more about the other index markets. Why do so many people trade ES? Because so many people trade ES?
Anyhows, in some ways this is ideal. (This is today)
ES
You enter at 8:30 when the price surpasses the top of that wave I circled, and then its a ride straight up. Also if you look where I circled on the indicator below you can see two brown lines followed by a green. This can often be a hint of momentum that is coming. It also tells you maybe enter long rather than short. You see that the short ended up being a fake out. It was a big hint in this case. Of course there is no opportunity to add until 3 pm, that's a bit late on a Thursday, on a Friday I would do it. You can see the price starting to come down and now it has come down all the way.
but I traded the Russell today so that looked like this;
Russell
So similar entry but no vroom. and no 2 brown bars on the oscillator. HOWEVER I did by sheer chance have a good entry long on that long legged bar, what I was talking about before where the market surges in the opposite direction that it is pointed, maybe you could call it a fake out, I don't know. Same chance as in the ES to add at the end of the day which I did but pulled out early because see above. Gold was decent too. Ok day, not great, but not bad.
Coming, they can't be denied. Going, they can't be detained.
How does the daily chart relate to the one I'm trading? How to see the big picture so I know what details to focus on. So looking at the four hour the direction of gold is obvious.
goldd
but am I seeing that day to day on the half hour chart? Yes and no. I have been very bullish gold during this period, but if I traded the 4 hour faithfully instead of the 30 minute to be safe on gaps, I would have five sets of contracts stacked with a stop at the edge of the cloud. That's a big stop, dunno if my small brain can handle it.
gold clouds
I don't totally believe in clouds but they can really help on putting a stop and finding levels (if you believe in levels)
Also why not put a buy at the top edge of the cloud? falling knives. If it falls like that, and parabolic movements often do, puffy clouds are not going to save the price necessarily. Clouds look solid but alas are not. Again, where do I put my stop?
Coming, they can't be denied. Going, they can't be detained.
Here's the 30 min chart on gold, another big swing today.
gold
The parabola on the daily is getting very long (see above) but I don't see any real weakness yet. The longer it goes the more sudden and violent the drop, statistically speaking. So am now taking measured moves. Out today at 1900 and will see how that surge resolves tonight, early morning. It could really go either way from here. I really try not to guess. What do I know about the world's need for gold? Not much man. Lex Luther was always trying to steal some of it, must be valuable.
Coming, they can't be denied. Going, they can't be detained.
Are you sick of gold yet? I am not. Gold is so very interesting. And shiny. I love that something with obviously no practical value has such value.
What is valuable actually? Its our ability to distinguish, one man's pearls are another man's swines. We swim through the vast universe alone.
In any case, this could be good, nothing too special but the oscillator highlights 2 strong attempts to the upside that failed and a clear fractal down.
gold down
Down we go, no hedge, just a stop at the high. It is a close stop, but the upside is very strong. Those who have read "Remembrances of a Stock Operator" You'll remember that the narrator was always plunging too soon and lost and lost when the bull markets just kept on trucking. Shit is real.
If you read this crap I appreciate it, it helps me write better to have a small audience. Here is your reward for today, it is a children's book by the great Chris Raschka
Coming, they can't be denied. Going, they can't be detained.
So this turns out to be a pivotal day in 3 markets. Coffee I won't address but gold and Russell are two very different situations. Here's the Russell,
russell
in at the green line then straight up. The problem is, here at 3 pm, I have nowhere to put my stop. I could leave it where it is but then I feel I'm just betting on black. Seems like there is more edge to letting this resolve then re-evaluate early morning. I'm only one contract in so no biggie. I am currently flat on Russell.
Gold on the other hand
gold
shows some possibility. Will hold 2 contracts and hopefully add more tomorrow. The green lines are the 2 short entries blue is the stop, see how much nicer a stop that is? Yes, you are nodding your head. I can see you.
Coming, they can't be denied. Going, they can't be detained.
I actually haven't done it in a while, but I got a little attached to my gold short and set my stop a teeny bit higher than indicated. Why? Dunno. Are you mad? I'm not mad bro. Done with gold for the week will focus on my Russell short. Didnt expect to be short Russell today but I am.
Have a great holiday. My dog finally got her cone off from her spay and is not a conehead anymore. She says "Thank Dog!"
I got butts to sniff.
Lu3
Coming, they can't be denied. Going, they can't be detained.
Over the weekend a bunch of us read a story by James Baldwin called Sonny's Blues. Its short, 14 pages but there is a lot in there. Its about two brothers coping with Harlem, horse and music during WW2.
Writing can take you to a very deep place, a place most of us with sense don't really want to go. And yet...
So very thought provoking weekend. I have decided to write a children's book, based on the life of old Chinese zen masters. The stories are very funny and simple. I think with good illustrations it could work. I haven't picked up an ink brush in a while so wish me luck.
Trading today is good. I'm not over convinced on the bull position for Russell, but short gold seems good and long yen looks doable as well.
my russell postition
Coming, they can't be denied. Going, they can't be detained.