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Ditch all the indies... You are using the best price action gauge invented - the 5 / 15 / 30 and 60 minute
Japanese candlestick bar.
All the volume info you need is shown within each bar.
The "Big Picture" is the key.
WAIT for Price to get to the SR lines you have drawn using daily / 3 hour and hourly charts "looking left"
The churn you speak of will be doji shooting stars and / or large wicks on the 15 and 30 minute charts.
I have found that sometimes these do not appear on the 5 min chart, so it is best to look at 15 and 30min
frequently around SR.
For entries , I have found a limit order 50% up a large wick is a safe entry point... an entry 2 ticks below the
top being the safest (but often not filled) and an entry at the Candle body having the most likelihood
of being filled but, of course the stop would need to be at least 2 ticks above the tallest wick
in the consolidation.
I run at least two cars to start, collecting the almost automatic 10 ticks and letting the other ride to
the previous area of SR usually short term, if I only have one car left.
I also will scale another single car on a retest of the high. (limit order just sitting there - 1 car / tight stop)
The trouble with most indies is that they are lagging and would not have shown anything about all
the PA we just analyzed and traded.
Now .. ... all this works like a charm when I am on SIM .... I am getting better at letting these
work more while in a Live Trade. I have a problem with closing early with small profits or BE when the heat comes.
I have been told by the best that this will wear off with more flight time.
Come with me, Bob.. into the land of Pure PA
I do enjoy the Gomi VP on the 30 and 15 and @Fat Tails anaVWAP that I use in conjunction with a 20ema.
But I consider all, Pure PA based indies.
The longer you and I stay in this game, I think we will naturally migrate to the type of trading the big dogs
apply.
Catch the larger moves / legs either with the larger trend or counter. (more conservative targets counter trend)
These always happen at areas of SR on the larger TF.
thanks AJ.Yes, i agree the dojis would typify a churn area.The 30 min tls have been useful lately.But they are in context with my mp chart.Thats the chart that gives me my mp/vwap/ib range.The cl ,although very sneaky at times,is very predictable in some ways.I just have to get better at reading the clues....a work in progress.See you in the room!
I wanted to go over this again,because ,for some reason,i was reading the cl very well on friday.The A entry was passed on,but noted.Basically,I use the ON mp until 9:30 eastern.We had a vpoc shift on the ON,and price got just under it,and couldnt get back above.I allready had a short bias off the open.
The 2 entries i took were noted on the charts.Basically,pa was riding the pops in the indexes,and cl was pushed into the reject area.The confluence for these trades is noted on the ch,and there was plenty.Not so much on the 5min,but really on the 30 min.
Although i took 2 trades that worked well,looking at the 30 min,we were in a tight wedge.There were longs to take,with plenty of confluence.So why didnt i take them?I honestlythought we were going lower.That was a bad job,to be specific.But,if i can read the cl correctly from 1 direction,thats better than nothing.
Jedi pointed out entries off the extremes of the profile would have a target..the middle of the profile.That makes sense.We cant expect the cl to just occilate from the highs to the lows and vice versa.If there is a 60 tick range,go for 20.
i was watching that obvious wedge form on the 30 min,and the mp/vwap levels were all flat,indicating a very definable range.
So all in all,a decent job,but no A+ day....but im happy with it nevertheless.
One other point...I shrunk my 6 range mp chart really small,to see yest levels.I cant tell you how much that helps.The cl will typically use a level to work with,and alot of times,it will be visually apparent on the prev days action(relatively speaking of course).Today for example,was the The ON highs,and yest ib low.It just takes a while for everything to line up,and get in confluence.This can make gap days more difficult,because of the lack of the prev days levels.
thanks Todd,we share similar fates...the perfect storm...i am looking at the water right now,under the throgs neck bridge....rippin rough....my mother in law flew home from Florida last night at 10 pm in this....really bothered me that she actually got on the plane...so unnecessary...good luck ...surge is gonna be huge
10/29/2012
mon
no trades
hurricane day,and my family is home..There were 2 trades tho,in retrospect..both shorts.
Interestingly enough,pa opened above both value areas,which is bullish.Pa ran up to the ON highs,and into the desc 30min TL.Pa pulled back,but then the dvah shifted above,as soon as we hit that,a short triggered.Im beginning to think the 30min rth TLs are going to be my areas.The 30rth also provides easy to see bracket areas.The 5 min neeeds to be to stretched out to see this...and the 5 min is eth..thats a big difference for tls too,obviously.
After struggling all summer trying to transition the eth mp ch with the rth,i finally realized that the rth makes alot of sense to me.I scrunch it up,to see prev days levels,and that seems to have helped alot.I will continue to prepare in this way,and hope that it continues to work well, and get better.The reason i say this,is because too many times in the past,i thought i had found something,always indicator based,and then inevitably it only works for a week or two.These trades are based off of TLs and mp...a big difference.
I am only posting a 30min ch today.There was confluence on my rth mp ch.also,i need to keep updating tls on the 30 min
At the bottom of the bracket on the 30 and daily.Today was very tight,and the TLs were there,but i had a problem with the desc TLs on the longer range ch that we need to contend with.So ,why not take shorts?the market,i thought,was trying to grind higher all day,and the shorts would have been off the asc TL swings.I was watching this all am,and to be honest, i did see some of the entries,but when we have tight action and wedges all over the place,i dont feel a sl of 20 ticks can be justified when the ranges are too tight.Enough said.
i brought on the 3o min rth and daily rth, to define my brackets, and TLs.Calling a bottom or a top at the extremes of the bracket ,for me is difficult.I would rather wait until we establish a direction,and look for Entries that have confluence with the general direction.It seems to me,at the top or bottom of the bracket,this isnt going to happen.That didnt happen today,and thats fine.Tomorrow is election day
11/9/2012
friday
2 trades.I will post 2 charts.A 6range eth with mp,and a 6range rth with mp.At 9:30,im really looking for the rth to take over,but i keep an eye on the eth levels for reference.
Trade 1)Basically,i was waiting for pa to get back within the dvah,which it did to the left.Why did i pass on the first one?I thought that the dvpoc was too close,stairstepping up.The original sh had plenty of confluence,and we all know what can happen when you miss the original signal,and try for the 2nd.
the 2nd blue arrow ducked back under the eth vah,and had some confluence with a TL on the rth.
trade 2)we were making HHs and HLs,so when pa came down to a TL on the rth,i gave it a shot.Alot of confluence here..RTH dvwap,dvpoc,cod.Also, on the eth ,we had vpoc with vwap just under.
so a be day,1 winner/1 loser.Notice no 5min.I need to simplify.Drawing TLs an range chs vs minute charts,we get different levels.
I will continue to look for the trades on the perimeter of the range,with confluence.I was happy with today.This week has been alot of come and go,with the Sandy cleanup,and now,impossible to get gas.
Im happy with today,because even tho i botched the 1st trade, i hung in there and took a good 2nd trade,that was logical
11/13/2012
tuesday
1 trade
price gapped down a bit on the cl,upon the open.Abounce off of the ON lows sent the cl higher.Interestingly ,as price ripped through the rth dvah,cl came down to the vwap and shot up.I didnt take this 1st entry.I was concerned about the range,but the trade worked well.Cl made another hod,and did the same thing.I took the 2nd shot,which took off.
In retrospect,i should have taken the 1st,as there was plenty of confluence.Also, the coil at the ON low was a good area for a long,but looking at the macd, i passed.
Its been said that the cl is rangy 80% of the time.That seems about right to me.It reaches for levels,and thats good.The use of the vwaps these last few days has been prevelant