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@phantomtrader You are right. You and I have had this conversation about mark101rrr in PM recently. I really do think he has something automated set up. I am not trying to fully automate anything so I really doubt I can get to that level, nor will I be trying to!
You are correct. Gary Norden does trade thinner markets than the ES. His 2nd book (And End to the Bull) is what lead me to want to become a scalper.
I'd love to see Pete's famous scalping video but I'd have to pay him another $349.00 for the Advanced Order Flow Training Pack and I'm just not sure it's worth that much to see that video.
Matthew is correct - that's the video I mean. It's worth noting however that Pete isn't talking about scalping there he's talking about looking at correlated markets to trade the thinner markets.
There is another video here which is really useful:
I did buy the advanced course - it's good value I think having watched it a number of times, but the scalping video that is included is I think just another version of what is above, everything you need is in those two videos I think so don't feel you need the advanced course video JUST for the scalping video, it's good to have of course but the course has a number of other really worthwhile videos for when you feel ready for it.
With regards to Gary - I think an End To Bull is a fantastic book, I read it regularly. I remember him saying in a video with Pete he was "ok" at the Dax so I didn't realise he was trading it as much as he trades the FTSE. I've not tried either and probably won't to be honest.
My results from trading the One Tick Drill and subsequently the ES scalp are on journalytix, I've also recorded all my trades on video which I'll get around to sticking on there too at some point so happy to chat about it further if it helps.
There are a lot of problems with your plan but the primary one is you have completely underestimated the difficulty of what you are trying to do.
You think you are doing something unique from other retailers but you have not developed any proprietary systems, specialized software, ways of viewing the market, or indicators.
I could go into deep into the myriad of technical reasons for why what are you are trying to do is difficult and how you are not prepared. However, I think it might be better to take a step back and evaluate where your strengths are. For example, why do you think this method can be profitable or should be profitable in the first place?
If you are trading for ticks you want an instrument that gives you the most ticks per time. This is not the ES. While the ES moves 3 ticks the NQ or YM will move 10 - 12 ticks. Not sure why you think there is an advantage in looking at the YM in order to trade the ES but if it is because it is easier for you to see what you think are opportunities in the YM, although there may be a timing correlation in the effort to push one way or another but there will certainly not be a bang for the buck correlation. If you can read the YM then trade the YM.
Most people who have been doing this for awhile will probably agree that achieving consistent profitability is the hardest road they have ever traveled. Watching You-Tube videos and buying fancy software is easy to do and because there is nothing easy about any of this, any impressions you have developed based on your experience so far are likely not going to serve you well over the long haul.... assuming there is a long haul... which statistics argue is not likely.
Because you are new at this and don't really know what you are doing it would be wise for you to question all of your assumptions. Why? Because you don't know what you are doing. The sooner you accept that the sooner you'll start to make progress. There are many journals on IO with novice traders going into great detail each day and speaking with authority about market minutia concerning Opens and Closes of the worlds markets, fiscal policy and of course Market Profile and Fib levels.... and they have a losing day, and week, and month...and then they blow away in the wind. Would you choose as a mentor someone who doesn't have more experience than you and has never traded profitably? Well, at this stage in however long this is going to last for you, whenever you make a trading decision that is exactly what you are doing. Acting on the opinion of someone who has yet to demonstrate they can make this work. And therein lies one of the reasons this is so difficult. How do you make progress then? You'll need more time and the funds that will be required than you expect. You need tenacity. You need luck. And you need to put into this every ounce of energy and commitment you can muster. When you are frustrated and feel like all that you are doing is beating you head against a brick wall then you should take heart because that indicates you are on the right road. It's not going to be easy.... what most novice traders fail to accept is that this also means it is going to be hard.
I would switch strategies and attempt to swing trade or at least hold all day. Intraday trading systems and super small targets generally do not backtest well or perform over a longer amount of time. Keep in mind one tick of profit doesn’t pay for slippage, commissions, and losing trades. Also, question the “common knowledge “ that rising volume is a bullish pattern.
Good to find other JigS traders who took the advance course(which is the Price Ladder course by Alex through Axia Futures). All the Price Ladder videos are good. I have watched them couple of times, and it takes a while to sink in. A lot of screen time is required, it's one thing to watch and then follow their drills, takes serious amount of screen time. After putting in screen time and observing the ladder I still think it wasn't a complete process. Don't get me wrong, you learn a lot and that core learning is important to understand the markets and the interaction between buyers and sellers. But I think they didn't cover areas where to expect those plays to happen. Like the absorption, momentum breakouts, reversals, they start with 'We are watching this key area, and expecting a price rejection, and following the market velocity......' they never tell how to identify those key areas before the trading day begins.
Looking at their other courses where they have training around FootPrint charts and VolumeProfile might help complete the entire process. The other course seem to be expensive though.. so not really leaning towards spending that much. I was able to find a lot of free videos put out by them and get a good handle to use Foot Print while executing it on the Price Ladder.
This video helped in understanding the difference:
The first principle of trading is that you will have to figure out for yourself how you are going to trade that will fit your personality and risk tolerance etc. As everyone says, "it will take a lot longer than you think, and it will be a lot harder than you think". That doesn't mean you can't succeed, it will just be slow and hard.
I am attaching a simple break even analysis model in excel for you to play with. You will notice real quick that if you are going to target small tick wins you are putting yourself into a situation that you cannot make many errors in your trade decisions.
Best regards and good luck in your journey.
“The major work of the world is not done by geniuses. It is done by ordinary people, with balance in their lives, who have learned to work in an extraordinary manner.”
― Gordon B. Hinckley
You said that you want 1 tick in ES, yet most of the vids and advice, save for The Getting Started in Scalping vid, isn't really scalping advice. If you want to learn how to scalp scalp scalp and want mentors, you either go to Norden or maybe Scalping Education who was a Norden student. Scalping Education doesn't scalp for 1 tick in the ES, he scalps for 3. He only scalps for 1 tick in ZB.
What I've learned from obsessing over Norden, market making, real scalping (not that BS that most ppl call scalping) is that you have to take their principles and carve out your own niche. You might find yourself doing things a bit differently, but as long as your winrate is over 80% and you are making money--- you are doing well.
When it comes to correlation, perhaps use more than just YM. Have YM, NQ, RYT, UB, ZB, ZN up. In certain moments they work off each other. The last 2 weeks you could use NQ/YM/ES as an inverse correlation for UB/ZB picking off a tick or 2. The problem is that correlations often breakdown.
I'm no longer playing the correlations, I'm hunting retailers and other screen watchers at their local watering hole.... That is why I reintroduced a chart, so that I can pick them off. Using the orderbook and T/S to let me know when it is safe to attack them, who else is hunting, what type of games are being played in the book, where is the manipulation, when can I even use orderbook spoofing to my advantage when I observe it.