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You can't call a top in gold and then once you miss your prediction say that the range for your prediction could be as high $5000. You essentially give yourself an unlimited top. Gold may come down soon or it may not but reality is you were wrong in your top prediction. If you had actually traded your convictions you might very well be wiped out by now as Gold has continued to rise. Trading in the real world you can't give yourself that kind of range without blowing your account.
Very difficult to predict tops especially in a market that is on fire. I agree with others just admit you were wrong and move on. You are not the first guy who was wrong about a top just be glad you did not risk any money. Trading live it is important to learn to admit when you were wrong. Hanging on in a live trade unwilling to admit you are wrong will destroy your account eventually. I am wrong all the time which is why I have stops but my system is right more than it is wrong and I have my ratios setup so I can be wrong and still make money.
Being wrong is very much a apart of trading. It is what you do when you are wrong that can determine the difference between failure and success.
"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
If you had followed this thread to the letter you would have more than recovered your loss from the first failed short with the profits from then reversing and taking profits at the new (at the time) highs.
Bloody hell, why don't you guys read the bloody thread properly?! I have NEVER said "Sell it here, it will never go higher".
Ok, I think I understand the confusion. I was confused because I have a different definition of what "I'm calling the top" means. If I said "I'm calling the top" I would mean - "this is the top". Now I understand that when you say "I'm calling the top", you mean "at some unknown time in the future, this market will go down".
Its a simply misunderstanding involving semantics - my apologies.
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
@cpi65 - please understand that we're just heckling you for fun - we've all been there - its your choice whether to take it personally or not but I, at least, am just taking the piss out of you and am not trying to insult. (I think that's the proper use of a british saying?)
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
cpi I agree. I have been wrong so many times when I try to predict. Please don't take it as a personal attack. I admit I did not read entire thread and hate it when people don't read an entire thread that I started and misconstrue what I say. I was going off your thread title which is very absolute. But please accept my apologies for not reading entire thread.
"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
In the very beginning of the thread, I said "If Gold prints above todays high, that does not invalidate my reasoning". That should have made it pretty clear that I did not rule out the possibility that it still could press higher in this mania phase before collapsing. Perhaps you should have read the thread properly before jumping on the badwagon.
Look, the first opportunity I highlighted to short it failed, I recongised that when it happened, and even said I thought new highs were more likely than new lows - before either had happened. I have no problems acknowledging that the first attempt proved incorrect - I did do so at the time.
I take exception to being lambasted for something that is taken totally out of context by people who either failed to read or didn't understand the ethos of the thread.
You had to have figured you would get some flack for calling a top.
I didn't give you flack however, I questioned why you weren't trading it.
Anyone can call a top and eventually they will be right.
You're correct, I didn't read your post in its entirety.
The title of the thread seemed to be the cliff notes to me.
No hard feelings, mate. Internet threads discussing tops and bottoms shouldn't be too serious.
Take it easy.
I don't have any problem with you questioning why I wasn't trading it. I mentioned in another (unrelated) discussion on this thread about why I discard all fundamental analysis, and my view on trading Gold is along the same lines - I'm not going to trade it because I am not conviced that I know enough about the market or have enough experience trading it to have an edge. This thread is merely about my observations of bubbles and orthadox vs. unorthadox price action that I have picked up over the years.
My (albeit terse) reply was to the "100 point drawdown" comment, which in all fairness is not borne out by reading the thread in full. Actually, someone did ask me..
to which my response was
which was made when Gold was still trading under the $1820-ish high that had been set at the time.
As for the title, of course I gave it an audacious title in order to draw attention to itself, but I had hoped to make it clear very early on that the thread was more about trading unorthadox price action and the action at the end of a bubble rather than a dollar high in the yellow metal itself.
The title may have misled some, but the content surely does not. For the particular "punk" comment, I apologise.
cpi65 - I apologize, as I guess I hit a nerve. For the record, I did read the entire thread - I read it when you first posted and followed it as gold hit 1900. I do think, though, that if you post a thread stating "I'm calling a top" on a public forum, you have to expect a bit of heckling when it goes 1000 ticks higher. Just sayin...
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty. - Frank Herbert
I believe a telltale sign of a top in gold will come in when either (a) nominally bullish news for gold hits the tape and it closes down hard or (b) it closes down hard with no news hitting the tape ... and by "hard" I mean down 50+ bucks an ounce. However, as others have noted, it's extremely difficult to call a top in a market that is showing bubble-like price action.