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Yes, this is one possibility. In this case there should be many hogs on the US market, and the price of hogs should move downwards. Or Mr. Trump finds a deal that the Mexicans like, and the fear of a US Import tax disappears. And hog prices move upwards.
Another issue regrding fundamentals is the frozen stocks report of last week, which showed a surprizingly tiny stock of frozen bellies.
I prefer selling options when I think I understand the fundamentals of the commodity. Currently I do not. That is why I closed my position.
Sold the LCQ P90 today, which seem to be undervalued. The CoF report was bearish for April and June contracts, but August contract was drawn down with them.
I sold it for 0.21 on Jan 11th and today bought it back at 0.10. Using 6xIM the MROI was 3.5%. 20 days held. Max draw down was 4.1% and max part of account used to cover IM was 19% even though futures at one point were 6.40 higher than the day I entered the position. In fact today is the first time since I entered the position that futures are lower than the day I entered the position.
That's why I like selling options so much. I can be wrong on the direction of the futures and still make money.
For selecting trades I work with delayed data. I receive it from Trade Navigator, but I assume there are many sources for delayed data.
To enter the trade I use live data from DeCarley Trading. The trick is: You enter the option in the field "order entry". If you know click sell or buy you see the live bid or ask price.
On the Zaner360 platform in the Order Entry box, enter the symbol, make the order type 'Limit" then click on "Sell", the limit price automatically filled in is the real time best bid. If you click on "buy" the limit price is now the real time best ask.
Aaaarrgh, that's how you do it , great trick. That explains it. I too feel as retail trader it's just not worth it to pay quite expensive monthly fee for the softs' datafeed, while not trade so often on them.
Actually I can see realtime data for softs from my TOS account. So that'll make it easier. Only thing is must be careful when inputing the correct option symbol in 'order entry' tab in Zaner360.
Thanks again Myrrdin. Been enjoying and learn a lot from your posts. Keep up the great job.
There is another trick to avoid inputing a wrong option symbol.
Open the option chain for the contract in Zaner360. It will not show prices, but it will show all option contracts. Click the one you want to sell, and it will appear in the field "order entry".